MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf7e87693329610964a9a8b0b831d46650d7d8999d877b61497aefc836c388e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 12,376$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,376.45 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked New York Mets | 45c | 10,784$4,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.16 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 5,786$3,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.92 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed New York Mets | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets | 35c | 3,694$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.49 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 43c | 3,684$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.12 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 3,437$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.52 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 2,386$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.46 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 1,730$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 1,118$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed New York Mets | 35c | 1,112$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.23 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed New York Mets | 35c | 714.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed New York Mets | 34c | 645.55$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.6 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 580.68$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.63 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed New York Mets | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed New York Mets | 43c | 421.93$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.43 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 399.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed New York Mets | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 44c | 275.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked New York Mets | 37c | 259.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 43c | 244.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 218.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked New York Mets | 46c | 217.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked New York Mets | 35c | 216.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 214.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…8b52backed New York Mets | 34c | 154$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 127.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Mets | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 32c | 113.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 32c | 112.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…66dcbacked New York Mets | 45c | 95.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 80.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 77.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 76.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…6518backed New York Mets | 45c | 60.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed New York Mets | 43c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 57.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed New York Mets | 43c | 57.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed New York Mets | 35c | 55.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215f…c9f1backed New York Mets | 27c | 40.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 37.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed New York Mets | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 30.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked New York Mets | 45c | 27.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -8.1wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked New York Mets | 39c | 26.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 24.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…ef93backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNo won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.