MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03abd737b73eba29c083a71fd1e979d45d184cfbf51615a89486371711a19dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 43c | 5,815$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 2,424$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.19 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 56c | 1,161$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.71 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 42c | 696$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.32 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 601.11$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.02 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 530.88$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.28 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 58c | 433.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.42 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 57c | 423.89$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.39 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Over | 42c | 348$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 43c | 233.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 200.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 42c | 167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 160.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 57c | 155$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 137$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 43c | 107.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over | 47c | 98.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 43c | 47.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 52c | 45.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 38c | 38.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 508 | 60.2%306 W · 202 L | +29.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 34.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 42c | 31.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…6831backed Under | 65c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 50c | 24.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 60c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNo won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.