MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x929e188a76112ff201ec181162a1e5930686a6043aeec62b6770fbfaba725c8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 854.92$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.81 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 790.01$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.82 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 52c | 631.3$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.02 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 446.27$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.75 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 409.75$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 46c | 364.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 320.62$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 312.56$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 232.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 58c | 230$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under | 55c | 213.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 123.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 76c | 106.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 875 | 52.7%461 W · 414 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 55.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 44c | 53.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Under | 52c | 32.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed Under | 46c | 30.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 56c | 24.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 45c | 23.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 53c | 22.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.