MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14148f16fc5b9984f42b08ddbd7c4f2cb29eba92b8767087db05f4389effd391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 54c | 9,173$4,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,953.39 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 46c | 4,617$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.18 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 1,427$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.74 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 1,400$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,385$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Under | 44c | 1,096$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 839.88$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.92 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 46c | 832$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 719.53$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 611.46$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 76c | 503.77$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 47c | 455.48$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 435$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 286.59$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 44c | 274.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 46c | 212.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Under | 48c | 186.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 52c | 152.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 36c | 130$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 53c | 99.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 45c | 90.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 85.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 51c | 70.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed Under | 46c | 33.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 47c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 51c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 52c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.