TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Kraken vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Krakenof Kraken, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$532,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$550,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 517 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Kraken28c118,719$33,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,477.5967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Kraken29c83,769$24,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,157.11,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Kraken29c59,998$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,598.8914650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Lightning72c35,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,2008952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kraken28c32,351$9,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,241.241,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lightning71c30,561$21,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,698.1441850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Lightning61c26,204$16,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,089.7127448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning72c25,371$18,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,167.3761950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Lightning71c19,386$13,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,7642123.8%5 W · 16 L-6.6wins-0.31per pick55cpaid-57.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Lightning72c18,000$12,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,9605261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x178d…43fcbacked Lightning72c17,786$12,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,806333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe262…ac17backed Lightning72c17,547$12,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6341643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b6f…ce60backed Lightning72c16,983$12,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,227.532853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Kraken29c16,000$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,359.9850049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Lightning72c11,944$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,599.654957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Lightning72c10,800$7,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7765350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning71c9,448$6,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,701.641,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Kraken29c8,054$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,718.4861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Lightning72c8,018$5,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,772.832025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning66c7,916$5,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,222.7489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a22…c593backed Lightning72c7,107$5,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,116.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f1…c5f8backed Lightning72c7,020$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,054.41450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Lightning71c6,860$4,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,870.5724654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Lightning72c6,220$4,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,478.418641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Kraken29c6,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,26013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning71c5,976$4,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,242.441,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Lightning71c5,768$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,095.21850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked Lightning72c5,760$4,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,147.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Lightning71c5,444$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,840.442470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Lightning69c5,216$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.576456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Lightning71c5,000$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,549.893351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning72c4,821$3,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,47185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…c84abacked Kraken29c4,715$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Kraken35c4,490$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.1957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning71c4,200$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,981.9743548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Kraken31c4,003$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.5886549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Kraken29c4,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,84027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning71c4,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.9826750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning71c4,000$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.9327850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning71c4,000$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.8960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning61c3,771$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.331,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Kraken40c3,729$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.462060%12 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+33%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Lightning58c3,449$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Kraken41c3,403$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.3895049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kraken39c3,140$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.663,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lightning72c3,135$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.9261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Kraken29c2,760$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.644551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5b…88acbacked Lightning72c2,508$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8062339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Lightning72c2,222$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Lightning72c2,028$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4603050%15 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Lightning72c2,016$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.521435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Kraken29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4201,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Lightning71c2,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.9420450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f6…6d85backed Kraken51c1,965$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.611861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kraken28c1,900$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.5176950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Lightning72c1,800$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29650251.2%257 W · 245 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Lightning72c1,775$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27813551.1%69 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning71c1,745$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.842,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Lightning58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.138345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a2b…c97cbacked Kraken67c1,700$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5547671.1%54 W · 22 L+10.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+24.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a3c…6f23backed Lightning72c1,685$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Kraken31c1,612$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.8430259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1156…6886backed Lightning72c1,607$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Lightning67c1,600$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.57737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb4e…c3c3backed Kraken29c1,552$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.7221534.4%74 W · 141 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning64c1,509$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.9985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14ec…81c7backed Lightning1c1,504$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.87812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Lightning72c1,485$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.26256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b6…c914backed Lightning3c1,473$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kraken33c1,459$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.532,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning57c1,455$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.032,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Lightning72c1,440$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.83764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae8…6861backed Lightning72c1,424$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Kraken47c1,388$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.9852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x94fc…7162backed Lightning72c1,356$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked Lightning72c1,250$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning71c1,234$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.1475251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Lightning72c1,227$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.761752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Lightning1c1,208$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.087055.7%39 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Lightning71c1,177$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.6245955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning67c1,169$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.811,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Kraken29c1,142$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.860337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Lightning60c1,105$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.715563.6%35 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning69c1,087$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.631,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Lightning50c1,086$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.5811933.6%40 W · 79 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Lightning72c1,065$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76711243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Lightning71c1,056$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505757.9%33 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Kraken40c1,026$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.6231828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lightning71c1,005$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.091,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Kraken29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Lightning71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Kraken29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7105253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed Lightning72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7202751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Lightning52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…db0bbacked Lightning4c999.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Lightning71c978$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.3831848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfa…faa4backed Kraken50c922.84$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.388846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Lightning2c870.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4190%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Lightning58c861.6$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7314837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Lightning71c799.95$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.9745749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.