NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd72346ac9d9898c309e75ee1a63669daa3996c9d4060f461be301f9d1373b313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3700…3c06backed Under | 53c | 7,300$3,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,869 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…db6fbacked Over | 47c | 7,300$3,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,869 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 47c | 2,700$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.22 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 53c | 1,595$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.35 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 1,345$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.04 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 48c | 623.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.34 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 53c | 471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 302.4$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.63 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 53c | 232.72$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…ac33backed Over | 47c | 186$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…6b98backed Over | 47c | 181$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…622abacked Over | 47c | 164$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…e43ebacked Over | 47c | 156$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…cd37backed Over | 47c | 153$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 124.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 115.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 105.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 52c | 100.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 53c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 43c | 88.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…bf86backed Under | 54c | 81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…7780backed Under | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9628…ed6bbacked Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 48c | 68.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…aa1ebacked Under | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…c0ecbacked Under | 54c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…3187backed Under | 53c | 62.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…fcc2backed Under | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 54.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…c2adbacked Under | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 53c | 44.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 52c | 43.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 48c | 42.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…d60abacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…7f41backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17c…0f9cbacked Under | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…6382backed Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 52c | 31.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc1…9cc7backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…5706backed Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…0be2backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b7…849dbacked Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 55c | 19.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. LightningKraken won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.