NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe531e36f6349f61082e69fe3425f615e6bb002316c239c035d0cbdf211f842fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Lightning, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Lightning | 52c | 11,790$6,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,130.95 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kraken | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kraken | 48c | 4,153$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.99 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Lightning | 51c | 2,688$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.84 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Kraken | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Lightning | 52c | 1,300$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 48c | 1,266$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.23 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Lightning | 53c | 1,251$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.1 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kraken | 47c | 1,019$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kraken | 48c | 1,010$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.2 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Kraken | 50c | 720.12$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.12 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 50c | 680.44$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.22 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Kraken | 48c | 631$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.12 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kraken | 65c | 577.8$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Kraken | 48c | 529$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.91 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kraken | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Kraken | 47c | 375.15$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.83 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Lightning | 53c | 375.15$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.83 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Lightning | 29c | 359.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Lightning | 53c | 347.04$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.93 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Lightning | 57c | 346.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Lightning | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kraken | 47c | 242.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.32 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 23c | 223.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kraken | 48c | 211$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Lightning | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Kraken | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Lightning | 50c | 175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Kraken | 47c | 160$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kraken | 59c | 142$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 45c | 132.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Kraken | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Lightning | 53c | 104.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…01c7backed Lightning | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Lightning | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Lightning | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Kraken | 50c | 83.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kraken | 56c | 81.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Kraken | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lightning | 51c | 77.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…a9a8backed Lightning | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Kraken | 77c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Lightning | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Lightning | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Lightning | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Kraken | 47c | 50.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Lightning | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Kraken | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kraken | 47c | 49.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Lightning | 51c | 47.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 53c | 45.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Lightning | 52c | 45.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Lightning | 39c | 39.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Lightning | 56c | 36.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Kraken | 49c | 36.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Kraken | 48c | 31.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…f338backed Lightning | 53c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Kraken | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Kraken | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Lightning | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. LightningKraken won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.