NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f6b776b5701fca34680b5a123dc52bf33aac7d1890d82656cf251316b63fc00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 60c | 5,785$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 40c | 5,202$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.8 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 4,933$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.84 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 62c | 4,007$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.95 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 61c | 2,579$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 62c | 2,179$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.02 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 40c | 1,843$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.38 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 39c | 1,648$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.74 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 1,195$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.77 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 40c | 753.2$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.28 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 40c | 617.94$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.17 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 40c | 464$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 60c | 418.87$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 333.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 39c | 290.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 43c | 182$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 51c | 173.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 39c | 170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Under | 40c | 144.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 39c | 134.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 132.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 38c | 94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1df9backed Over | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 74.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6258backed Under | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 40c | 53.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 50c | 50.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43fc…9728backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Over | 78c | 41.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 60c | 38.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…4a7cbacked Over | 59c | 33.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 79c | 29.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 41c | 28.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Kraken vs. LightningKraken won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.