NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754afe0d1ec63954ea3563a0caf7932516516426cec4e825a1429962393baf71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8684…a117backed Under | 72c | 1,290$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 48c | 622.04$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.19 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 28c | 353$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 28c | 338.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Under | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 72c | 287.56$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…b3b6backed Over | 66c | 245.09$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Over | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 72c | 160.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 53c | 153.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 28c | 153.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 129.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 43c | 114$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 57c | 106$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 64c | 104.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 54c | 103.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 95.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…c619backed Over | 43c | 79.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Over | 42c | 69.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…32eebacked Over | 28c | 36.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 35c | 32.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 74c | 32.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…517dbacked Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 57c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5this page
- Kraken vs. LightningKraken won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.