TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc1b6…c914

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
276
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: NHL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT9220.7%19 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 92 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$696Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$695.84
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.03
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$575Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$575.14
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$194
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$593Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$593
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$92.07
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,944Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,943.67
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10,006Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,006.48
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$976Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$975.68
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+97.6%+$1,091.72
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$464Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+102.5%+$475.92
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,383Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,382.51
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$676Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+143.1%+$967.74
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,013Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+135.8%+$1,375.69
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.2
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,585Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,584.6
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+147.1%+$386.32
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$672.28
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,377Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+97.6%+$1,343.71
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$735Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+97.2%+$714.48
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+120.3%+$374.48
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.53
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinebacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.73
Showing 25 of 92 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT3525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,123.63
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$739Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$739.1
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$6,270Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+71.7%+$4,493.95
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,604Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,603.51
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$851Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$850.59
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,555Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,555.23
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,688Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,688.32
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,163Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,162.78
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.12
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$80.18
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$176.64
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.18
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$619Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$619.21
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 0 Galatasaray SK?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.12
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.81
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$641.3
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+73.8%+$735.28
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.17
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 3 Atalanta BC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$55.49
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT3020%6 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Colorado Buffaloesbacked Colorado Buffaloes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$340.16
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+1,182.1%+$175.77
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$496.01
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$558.91
Duke Blue Devils vs. LSU Tigers (W)backed LSU Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.39
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. George Washington Revolutionaries (W)backed Loyola Chicago Ramblers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (W)backed Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.35
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.68
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.81
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.58
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.69
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Auburn Tigersbacked Nevada Wolf Pack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.61
La Salle Explorers vs. Army Black Knights (W)backed La Salle Explorers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$136
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. New Mexico Lobosbacked Saint Joseph's Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$675.15
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (W)backed South Alabama Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$4,823Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,822.94
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Youngstown State Penguins (W)backed Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats (W)backed Florida International Golden Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (W)backed Ohio State Buckeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.99
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (W)backed Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+379.9%+$1,796.58
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.03
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.42
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. California Golden Bearsbacked Saint Joseph's Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$459.76
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Miami Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$493Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$493.28
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked High Point Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$551.11
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Kingsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$43.02
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$163.77
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$216.89
Canucks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Predators vs. Lightningbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Panthers vs. Rangersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.29
Oilers vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.03
Ducks vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$673Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$673.44
Penguins vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Kraken vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.8
SHL: Roegle vs. Faerjestadbacked Faerjestad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+747.6%+$119.13
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskbacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+139%+$32.05
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Spartak Moscowbacked Spartak Moscow · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+120.5%+$65.76
Rangers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
Bruins vs. Sabresbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$127.63
DEL: Adler Mannheim vs. Bremerhavenbacked Bremerhaven · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Torpedobacked Severstal Cherepovets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$75.61
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Traktorbacked Traktor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
KHL: CSKA Moscow vs. SKA St. Petersburgbacked SKA St. Petersburg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
KHL: Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg vs. Salavat Yulaev Ufabacked Salavat Yulaev Ufa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+60.7%+$151.17
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$769Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+58.5%+$450.29
Blues vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$13.59
Bruins vs. Devilsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.29
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT2317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.76
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,319.74
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$976.47
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,465
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+163.5%+$1,961.2
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.17
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.06
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.13
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$778.62
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$449Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$448.74
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+212.4%+$1,210.49
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.13
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.82
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.55
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.16
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.86
Will Egypt vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$219.07
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 23 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,630Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+96%+$2,525.37
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$488.75
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$107
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.36
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.18
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.61
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.23
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$697Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+95.1%+$662.53
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.37
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Barcelona vs. KK Crvena Zvezdabacked KK Crvena Zvezda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.26
Saski Baskonia vs. Hapoel Tel Avivbacked Saski Baskonia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+142.8%+$99.81
Saski Baskonia vs. KK Crvena Zvezdabacked Saski Baskonia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$540.66
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+129.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group Bbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+93.2%+$44.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,400
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+301.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+301.6%+$44.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+131.9%+$57.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$32.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Youssef Zalal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.