TailMyPicks

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NHL · resolved market

Canucks vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden Knightsof Canucks, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$719,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$755,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $719,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 588 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Canucks25c227,472$56,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,86867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Canucks25c69,962$17,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,669.9936748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Golden Knights75c60,000$45,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights75c59,933$44,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,989.6261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Canucks25c54,283$13,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,570.7148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Golden Knights75c52,000$39,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,0008252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Golden Knights75c44,204$33,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,0515052%26 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Golden Knights75c34,000$25,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,5008952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Canucks25c29,963$7,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,490.693056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Canucks14c23,835$3,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.6516442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Golden Knights75c22,973$17,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,743.281,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Golden Knights75c19,955$14,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.751675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Golden Knights75c18,500$13,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6255261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f1…c5f8backed Golden Knights75c16,195$12,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,048.751450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Canucks26c15,658$4,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,07185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Canucks25c15,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7501662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Golden Knights75c14,241$10,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,560.334348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Canucks25c13,846$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Golden Knights50c13,396$6,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6981861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69a0…cec6backed Golden Knights75c13,350$10,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Golden Knights75c11,424$8,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8565639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Golden Knights75c10,710$8,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.375350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Canucks25c9,909$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477.1510840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Canucks26c8,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Canucks26c7,692$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Golden Knights76c7,605$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.644553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Canucks25c7,500$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8751,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Golden Knights75c6,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights74c6,000$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.951,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Golden Knights74c5,959$4,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.3683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Golden Knights75c5,886$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.518641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights74c5,768$4,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.6843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Golden Knights74c5,555$4,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.375251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Canucks50c5,508$2,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.511,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Canucks25c5,340$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.9914954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Canucks25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Golden Knights73c5,000$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Golden Knights75c4,751$3,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.72429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights75c4,670$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Canucks25c4,175$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.471,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights74c4,142$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.0460249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Canucks26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Golden Knights74c4,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04026750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Golden Knights75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0006758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Golden Knights74c4,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0402470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Canucks25c3,986$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.5539752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Golden Knights75c3,504$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.023348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Golden Knights74c3,482$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.374264.3%27 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Golden Knights75c3,416$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.9747951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Golden Knights75c3,376$2,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.024450%22 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Golden Knights74c3,345$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.6727850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights75c3,333$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.3689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Golden Knights75c3,129$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.3366552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Canucks26c3,100$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80644551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x665c…307bbacked Golden Knights74c2,991$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.661861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Golden Knights75c2,871$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.754247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Golden Knights67c2,780$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.827448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c9a…b30fbacked Golden Knights75c2,600$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Canucks20c2,459$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.3930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x46e5…79f3backed Canucks40c2,211$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8813234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Canucks42c2,203$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.562,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Golden Knights75c2,200$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55070249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2c…dfe7backed Canucks25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Golden Knights74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Canucks26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5208860.2%53 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Golden Knights75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50011243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Golden Knights79c1,997$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.3938849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed Golden Knights75c1,984$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4965052%26 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Golden Knights74c1,962$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.2320450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Golden Knights75c1,950$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.513147.3%62 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Canucks44c1,944$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.221,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b6f…ce60backed Golden Knights75c1,937$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.142853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Golden Knights75c1,920$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Golden Knights75c1,910$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.56835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Golden Knights74c1,737$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.7254047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights66c1,663$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.391,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Golden Knights62c1,620$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.7712328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canucks26c1,609$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.341,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Golden Knights75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40050251.2%257 W · 245 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Canucks25c1,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Golden Knights75c1,570$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.510548.6%51 W · 54 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Canucks26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3903339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…7a59backed Canucks2c1,498$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Golden Knights75c1,467$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.675541.8%23 W · 32 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Canucks51c1,454$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.5717247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4e…c3c3backed Canucks26c1,346$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35021534.4%74 W · 141 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Canucks21c1,309$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27089636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Canucks31c1,299$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4087847.4%37 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b6…c914backed Canucks1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Canucks50c1,129$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.4819254.7%105 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Golden Knights53c1,100$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.995246.2%24 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Golden Knights58c1,045$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.8921048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…737ebacked Golden Knights75c1,024$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2561181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Canucks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Canucks25c999.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509353.8%50 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Golden Knights75c987.51$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.887857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Canucks42c965.69$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.5913437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Golden Knights75c964$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2413450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…fc60backed Golden Knights75c963.5$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf9…c81bbacked Canucks15c944.44$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-54.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.