TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,598,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,105,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,598,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 6,319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d36…0e68backed No61c4,312,373$2,643,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643,171.481225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No33c1,498,404$499,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499,633.814,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Yes39c1,214,008$468,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745,192.0433538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes49c1,108,381$544,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563,804.842,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x132f…453bbacked Yes40c740,618$296,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444,429.227135.2%25 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Yes39c735,130$286,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448,429.2811642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No15c638,704$97,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,025.2515844.3%70 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes60c599,141$361,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237,847.418,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed No62c581,970$362,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362,550.844748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed No57c499,993$284,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284,996.2315552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No9c361,003$32,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,866.093,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Yes35c350,001$123,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226,850.339142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d2…731dbacked No56c330,125$184,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,869.87343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes73c295,066$216,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,049.9174752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Yes43c283,335$121,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,834.477346.6%34 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Yes38c250,000$95,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155,0001844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes66c216,790$143,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,708.5420955.5%116 W · 93 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes44c215,308$95,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120,038.6424441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed No61c205,000$125,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125,0503345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed No57c199,765$113,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,865.8314349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Yes42c188,843$78,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,130.878440.5%34 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes42c183,423$77,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,160.9138734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes42c180,000$75,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,40042345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No65c164,668$106,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,995.0942541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked No47c157,052$73,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,749.977941.8%33 W · 46 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Yes39c150,000$58,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,50017840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Yes43c145,607$62,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,194.1951032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes56c140,579$79,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,288.251,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes42c136,257$57,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,940.2279231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Yes44c133,047$57,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,100.517452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e84…2fa1backed Yes41c128,792$52,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,273.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a0…7e90backed No10c120,405$12,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,325.298037.5%30 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes61c119,905$72,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,978.022,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ba…afeabacked Yes43c116,279$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,279.0715337.3%57 W · 96 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes72c110,107$78,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,175.0431945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes42c101,404$42,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,420.952,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e69…858dbacked No56c100,000$56,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,999.753246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1da…fefabacked No57c99,999$57,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,999.674143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed No7c94,737$6,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,426.925821.3%55 W · 203 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed No58c93,430$54,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,189.579747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked No65c88,061$56,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,954.720448%98 W · 106 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf501…8063backed Yes73c80,782$58,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,937.331154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes38c80,000$30,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,599.987839.7%31 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked No2c79,213$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.232516%4 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes71c78,234$55,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,409.0133337.8%126 W · 207 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No22c74,167$16,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,374.4256541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No12c73,809$8,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,846.764,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes41c72,944$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,943.8532429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Yes41c72,000$29,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,420.0513959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No2c71,954$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.518738%71 W · 116 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed No31c71,682$22,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,131.521738.7%84 W · 133 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked No6c68,423$3,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,785.3323540.4%95 W · 140 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed No37c67,934$24,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,826.5336939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6501…1220backed No59c67,795$39,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,999.054667.4%31 W · 15 L+9.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2e25…d49ebacked No62c67,051$41,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,571.823360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked Yes77c65,070$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,070.383971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes49c63,576$31,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,167.2865737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No57c60,060$34,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,129.61,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked No55c59,996$32,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,997.547653.9%41 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x217b…c168backed Yes42c59,899$24,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,994.161952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No57c59,045$33,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,926.5629952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No58c58,702$34,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,295.71,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Yes40c58,219$23,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,218.8226320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e4…ca76backed Yes44c56,818$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,817.931861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed No6c53,391$3,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.9238819.1%74 W · 314 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes41c51,000$20,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,09017949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e47…34a2backed Yes41c50,000$20,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,5007342.5%31 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No57c49,999$28,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,499.2927039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e17…d3d8backed Yes40c49,124$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,523.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c73…6ee3backed Yes42c47,619$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,619.054250%21 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x225b…9a83backed Yes40c45,672$18,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,187.5629333.8%99 W · 194 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Yes44c45,154$19,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,385.976159%36 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1d…eb2ebacked Yes70c44,000$30,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,175.3914542.8%62 W · 83 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…97cfbacked No6c42,416$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,694.7734122.3%76 W · 265 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed No35c42,353$14,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,823.382227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes68c41,636$28,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,279.9342043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No31c41,553$13,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,082.963,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92eb…9fcdbacked No7c40,815$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.8319738.1%75 W · 122 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes40c40,000$15,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,1009642.7%41 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd990…4866backed Yes42c38,919$16,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,572.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed No7c38,333$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9929030.7%89 W · 201 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Yes49c37,218$18,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,895.2534845.1%157 W · 191 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes40c35,000$14,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,858.410548.6%51 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes41c33,782$13,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,931.3820844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Yes44c33,382$14,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,693.757455.4%41 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Yes41c33,000$13,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,419.9513533.3%45 W · 90 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes42c32,052$13,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,590.026913%9 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Yes34c31,883$10,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,955.5649441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Yes40c31,855$12,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,074.66835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No68c31,476$21,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,306.224134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes42c30,001$12,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,400.832347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+38.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Yes41c30,000$12,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,7003046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…5e86backed No65c29,250$19,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,019.9611642.2%49 W · 67 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d74…a37fbacked No13c28,839$3,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,861.9920839.4%82 W · 126 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…f861backed Yes35c28,690$9,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,720.571752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No55c28,655$15,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,860.317544%33 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1396…62b5backed No47c28,091$13,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,095.114540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes42c26,114$10,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,179.417550.7%38 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked Yes43c25,581$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,581.44721.3%10 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes44c25,000$10,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,08830214.6%44 W · 258 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.