TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,275,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,621,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,275,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,608 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers30c1,239,414$375,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375,468.84,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked 76ers32c431,249$136,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136,109.6487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Celtics68c396,126$269,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,886.033240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed 76ers32c361,221$114,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,449.6666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked 76ers33c300,000$99,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,999.9916841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Celtics67c275,117$184,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,788.638148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Celtics72c265,955$191,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,627.099745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Celtics68c239,928$162,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,386.8729245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a114backed 76ers31c198,937$61,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,600.273554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked 76ers36c194,700$69,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,782.5715349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics69c118,784$82,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,323.644,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Celtics70c112,031$77,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,164.9369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Celtics69c105,172$72,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,603.2260351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Celtics67c103,043$69,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,600.012437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed 76ers27c87,879$24,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,026.25655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked 76ers32c75,118$23,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,978.8236549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed Celtics67c74,586$50,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,558.97650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed 76ers9c70,788$6,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,697.771,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Celtics73c61,655$45,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,646.738154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Celtics68c60,000$40,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2003770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Celtics68c58,706$39,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,017.0124942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed 76ers2c55,178$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.6718140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Celtics68c51,512$34,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,546.2631644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Celtics67c50,000$33,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,50034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed 76ers1c50,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35056646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Celtics69c47,938$33,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,806.2537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Celtics78c44,385$34,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,703.773,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked 76ers31c42,357$13,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,322.4712042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked 76ers35c41,217$14,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,414.769945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics68c40,548$27,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,839.224,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Celtics68c40,245$27,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,973.994252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked 76ers7c39,913$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.782642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Celtics69c37,595$26,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,483.282,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed 76ers33c36,844$12,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,242.7763746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Celtics72c36,000$25,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed 76ers20c35,795$7,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,146.121417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 76ers5c33,938$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.381,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked 76ers28c33,678$9,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,570.515036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 76ers18c29,400$5,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,170.9262144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 76ers19c28,694$5,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,366.721,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Celtics68c27,405$18,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,769.510248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Celtics72c27,246$19,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,693.2510860.2%65 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+109.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x040e…582fbacked Celtics74c27,022$19,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,025.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Celtics69c25,808$17,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.572450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed 76ers1c25,153$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.025213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Celtics68c24,750$16,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,92016039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Celtics80c24,416$19,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.396459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed 76ers32c24,000$7,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6808750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed 76ers33c23,269$7,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,678.821915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Celtics68c21,985$15,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,925.65747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162b…3d49backed Celtics73c21,793$15,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,884.165947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x207a…5b9cbacked Celtics66c21,731$14,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,284.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-52.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Celtics67c21,503$14,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,095.9928643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed 76ers14c21,436$3,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,015.487829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…7404backed Celtics75c20,983$15,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,308.429100%9 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed 76ers7c20,931$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.4625138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Celtics72c20,626$14,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,794.1816346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed 76ers31c20,300$6,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,324.3913842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed 76ers27c20,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40013534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Celtics70c20,000$14,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.938763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Celtics69c19,800$13,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,137.993151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked 76ers0c19,218$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.87211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Celtics70c19,124$13,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,730.221,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f7…91c1backed Celtics73c19,098$13,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,156.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Celtics68c19,085$12,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,123.5431455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Celtics73c18,598$13,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,021.428662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Celtics68c17,820$12,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,702.42466.7%16 W · 8 L+5.5wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+60.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Celtics69c17,700$12,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,464.431866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Celtics67c17,163$11,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,663.6711864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked 76ers1c17,101$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.117326.6%46 W · 127 L+0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked 76ers1c17,008$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9419033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Celtics68c17,007$11,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,442.2418553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Celtics73c16,914$12,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,568.531,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe6…fcc9backed 76ers33c16,818$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,549.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 76ers20c16,321$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.742,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Celtics67c16,056$10,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,297.8489444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…7d41backed 76ers35c15,430$5,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,424.815141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x648d…1366backed Celtics74c14,620$10,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,801.153336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f8…6699backed 76ers27c14,201$3,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,834.273354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics73c14,063$10,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,800.6485742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed 76ers34c13,958$4,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,745.7338143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed Celtics76c13,001$9,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,146.172429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-42.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked 76ers33c12,104$3,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.1820946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked 76ers1c11,787$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5135251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Celtics67c11,667$7,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,829.5664948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed 76ers27c11,612$3,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,181.38834.1%30 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb895…e4afbacked 76ers25c11,496$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.264445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics67c11,275$7,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,747.858,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed 76ers17c11,102$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.741855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Celtics69c10,878$7,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.191,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…64bbbacked 76ers33c10,740$3,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,597.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Celtics72c10,133$7,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed 76ers1c10,122$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.413179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Celtics68c10,120$6,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.9311738.5%45 W · 72 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Celtics72c10,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked 76ers9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Celtics69c9,953$6,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.436860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Celtics73c9,619$7,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.5133139.3%130 W · 201 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0367…16d4backed 76ers1c9,423$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.064327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 76ers4c8,456$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.751,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.