TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 26.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,204 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No52c999.97$515 inWon+$484.9979650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Yes49c791.35$388 inLost-$387.763339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7893…f071backed Yes48c465.73$224 inLost-$223.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+110.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No51c455.62$232 inWon+$223.424949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No44c210.7$93 inWon+$117.9956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes56c114.79$64 inLost-$64.1910636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Yes46c101.04$47 inLost-$46.615644.6%25 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No54c100$54 inWon+$461,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost-$5031540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Yes56c87.1$49 inLost-$48.6815446.8%72 W · 82 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No50c77.76$39 inWon+$38.967751.9%40 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No45c69.99$31 inWon+$38.543752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes54c55.43$30 inLost-$29.9317547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed No50c48.5$24 inWon+$24.2514649.3%72 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x486e…62c7backed Yes48c46.42$22 inLost-$22.283158.1%18 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+31.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes54c45.02$24 inLost-$24.3166046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x630b…34ffbacked Yes55c44.43$24 inLost-$24.329843.9%43 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No45c41.98$19 inWon+$22.9426957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b36…4a7cbacked Yes55c22.94$13 inLost-$12.65944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f6…b228backed Yes55c20.92$11 inLost-$11.451729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.