TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,416,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,483,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,416,286 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 420 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Celtics51c242,432$123,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118,79715545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Celtics52c211,989$110,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,754.8420545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked 76ers53c187,467$98,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,732.0987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacdf…f80abacked 76ers49c136,347$66,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,220.134656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers49c124,088$60,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,321.174,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed 76ers28c115,775$32,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,063.681936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed 76ers48c108,742$52,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,196.1536359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed 76ers49c99,999$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,999.5172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Celtics52c80,000$41,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,40060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed 76ers48c80,000$38,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,40043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Celtics72c75,667$54,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,537.8956646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed 76ers54c54,060$29,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,382.817251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Celtics45c50,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,499.9811333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed 76ers55c46,810$25,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,722.291,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed 76ers55c36,358$19,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,916.4564948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed 76ers53c34,776$18,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,596.4469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Celtics52c32,532$16,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,745.9614538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed 76ers47c30,000$14,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,099.8949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Celtics46c25,721$11,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,878.711,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Celtics50c19,400$9,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7008452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Celtics46c19,346$8,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,446.6766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Celtics60c18,953$11,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,577.983,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked 76ers47c17,900$8,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,413.0912639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Celtics78c13,796$10,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,075.261,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed 76ers50c13,333$6,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.51,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed 76ers48c13,120$6,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,334.2356945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Celtics51c12,863$6,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,260.9357950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Celtics53c10,350$5,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,864.3420744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47bc…9504backed 76ers50c10,054$5,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,027.165459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd34…ebe6backed 76ers48c10,009$4,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,804.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Celtics53c9,168$4,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,308.9211249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics72c9,067$6,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.58,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Celtics46c7,990$3,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.7938434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Celtics52c7,430$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,541.8787750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Celtics50c6,847$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.3889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ce…979fbacked 76ers48c6,598$3,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,167.01862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Celtics53c6,511$3,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.26045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Celtics52c6,425$3,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.981,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Celtics71c5,523$3,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.743269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics50c5,449$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Celtics52c5,341$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.6117055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked 76ers48c5,301$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.514441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Celtics52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4004465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed 76ers50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked 76ers52c4,669$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4284949%24 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed 76ers51c4,329$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,207.86657.6%38 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Celtics50c4,270$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.092,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Celtics53c3,887$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.9856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked 76ers48c3,875$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.179549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Celtics79c3,566$2,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.5817553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed 76ers54c3,434$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.67150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Celtics49c3,383$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.4614940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Celtics69c3,330$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.832,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd25…7d10backed 76ers54c3,204$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.97642.1%32 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Celtics68c2,971$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.3583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed 76ers56c2,968$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.8615849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Celtics51c2,955$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics50c2,838$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.074,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Celtics48c2,819$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.9713642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed 76ers50c2,678$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.2327645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed 76ers28c2,485$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.4320744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed 76ers33c2,389$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.1740041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers55c2,273$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.372,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Celtics48c2,222$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.436028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed 76ers50c2,187$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.4644740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed Celtics46c2,100$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.831040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed 76ers49c2,028$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.6320051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9e…441dbacked 76ers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed 76ers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96019937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…97fdbacked 76ers50c1,938$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.036543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Celtics48c1,938$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.5522039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff93…1239backed 76ers50c1,899$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Celtics49c1,829$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.3616642.2%70 W · 96 L-11.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10cb…8f74backed 76ers21c1,806$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.772339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed 76ers55c1,769$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9739531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Celtics47c1,744$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.5421147.4%100 W · 111 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed 76ers58c1,680$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.818756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Celtics54c1,602$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.7918438.6%71 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee96…0634backed Celtics52c1,500$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.646250%31 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6975…11c1backed 76ers51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7653246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed 76ers42c1,391$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.93444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked 76ers23c1,346$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4993148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b07…98a7backed Celtics79c1,239$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.193452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Celtics77c1,223$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.1545445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…b180backed 76ers55c1,167$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.1711153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Celtics50c1,150$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57256043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked 76ers49c1,100$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53914746.9%69 W · 78 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23ef…1d4cbacked Celtics49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.955337.7%20 W · 33 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Celtics49c1,030$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.3325155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed 76ers49c1,004$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.471,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked 76ers48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed 76ers48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4804738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Celtics52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48035049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Celtics52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4807358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Celtics53c990.14$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.3617147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ee5…83d6backed Celtics51c951.57$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.272646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed 76ers55c884.55$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.57448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed 76ers55c884.55$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.516050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed 76ers55c884.55$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.570246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Celtics52c840.11$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.0327450%137 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.