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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,912 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Celtics47c3,102$1,448 inWon+$1,654.4769848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked 76ers54c1,719$928 inLost-$927.7593148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked 76ers53c596.61$316 inLost-$316.26448.4%31 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked 76ers52c373.56$194 inLost-$194.2428838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Celtics49c309.99$151 inWon+$159.345,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d2…6ea7backed 76ers52c246.96$127 inLost-$127.192035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed 76ers51c190.31$97 inLost-$97.063933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6abc…bd1bbacked 76ers52c186.77$97 inLost-$97.1214549%71 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked Celtics49c130$64 inWon+$66.310143.6%44 W · 57 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked 76ers33c100$33 inLost-$3336243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Celtics67c98.02$66 inWon+$32.3511757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed 76ers51c69.36$35 inLost-$35.3789850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a3…fd93backed 76ers53c62.2$33 inLost-$32.962846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Celtics51c38.23$19 inWon+$18.8318347.5%87 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed 76ers54c31.71$17 inLost-$17.1222143.4%96 W · 125 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed 76ers54c19.45$11 inLost-$10.55858.6%34 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.