TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb3f6…b228

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
118
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Tennis, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT6850%34 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 68 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+86.4%+$12.1
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+127.8%+$19.17
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffsbacked ARCRED · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs BESTIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffsbacked BESTIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stagebacked G2 Ares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5)backed GenOne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stagebacked Black Phoenix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+83.9%+$13.42
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Phantom - Map 2 Winnerbacked INOX Division · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.82
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe - Map 1 Winnerbacked EYEBALLERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stagebacked Rune Eaters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winnerbacked CYBERSHOKE Prospects · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$7.84
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winnerbacked 1WIN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+65.4%+$8.51
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Imperial - Map 2 Winnerbacked Imperial · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Group Cbacked Endless Journey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$11.38
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Asian Qualifier Playoffsbacked Lynn Vision · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+203%+$24.36
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winnerbacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs magic (BO3) - RES Showdown Europe Playoffsbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffsbacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winnerbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffsbacked Walczaki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked Walczaki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Bbacked Walczaki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winnerbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+121.6%+$48.64
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winnerbacked ECHO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.95
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winnerbacked Walczaki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$16.04
Showing 25 of 68 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.3
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+66.2%+$13.19
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.86
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+91.8%+$12.85
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)backed Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$13.31
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+102.4%+$28.49
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+103.1%+$26.32
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+78.5%+$12.56
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA Summer League: San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazzbacked Utah Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
NBA Summer League: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New Orleans Pelicansbacked New Orleans Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
NBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. Chicago Bullsbacked Chicago Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
NBA Summer League: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericksbacked Memphis Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons backed Cavs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.93
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.61
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$9.91
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+58%+$11.6
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$28
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+98.7%+$14.8
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.98
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 26.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.45
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.43
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBAlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+153.2%+$22.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CLE vs. CHI: O/U 40.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Vicente Luque · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.