TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1WINof ARCRED, 1WIN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82d2…beeabacked 1WIN60c5,488$3,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,186.71,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ARCRED41c4,314$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.275,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed 1WIN53c4,100$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.4921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked 1WIN55c2,200$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.9575056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ARCRED41c1,767$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.672,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed 1WIN62c1,419$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.981,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked 1WIN67c1,366$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.6211546.1%53 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed ARCRED37c1,350$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.920562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ARCRED47c1,286$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.332,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed ARCRED44c1,144$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.3543455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed 1WIN54c999.98$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9929449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed ARCRED45c888.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed ARCRED47c880$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.373540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed 1WIN63c799.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.0322750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked ARCRED48c794.87$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.130223.2%70 W · 232 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed ARCRED53c786.91$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.3713342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 1WIN67c722.29$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.972,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed ARCRED49c716.5$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4112340.7%50 W · 73 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ARCRED19c695.12$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.733,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed ARCRED50c685.74$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.7417034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked ARCRED40c669.99$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26824447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4114…f750backed ARCRED46c637.78$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.55639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked 1WIN50c605.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.0219357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ARCRED34c597.76$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.191,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ARCRED46c548.74$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ARCRED5c503$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.055,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked ARCRED43c499.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9911650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed 1WIN57c473.25$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.2338052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked 1WIN55c440.5$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9122729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ARCRED48c438.48$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.74,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x971f…1e98backed 1WIN46c355.5$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.583548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…cd83backed ARCRED35c350.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-20%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed 1WIN56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1549159.3%54 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked ARCRED35c325.01$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11419548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62f7…6573backed ARCRED48c301.6$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.484035%14 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed ARCRED47c300$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8117044.1%75 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed ARCRED48c291.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14026624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked ARCRED34c290.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 1WIN63c288.83$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.046,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ARCRED45c283.37$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.462,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed ARCRED39c281.16$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6475438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed 1WIN53c280.92$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9220046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked ARCRED46c247.13$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.151136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked ARCRED45c230$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.515646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5323…326abacked ARCRED45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa63f…b685backed ARCRED45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED26c216.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.432,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed 1WIN56c214.82$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8327647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15bc…4a7ebacked 1WIN61c212.57$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8320147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ARCRED40c207$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.392,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked ARCRED15c204.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.371,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed 1WIN53c189$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8335153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 1WIN55c178.43$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.84,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed 1WIN57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4439955.4%221 W · 178 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc28f…6193backed 1WIN56c175.07$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0310956.9%62 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c4…74bbbacked 1WIN57c174.45$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.154355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf206…df39backed 1WIN58c172.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.344355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed 1WIN56c151.96$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ARCRED39c151.71$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.441,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75c7…fcccbacked 1WIN40c150$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4920444.1%90 W · 114 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f56…50edbacked ARCRED45c127.07$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1811656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 1WIN56c126.25$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.493,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41c4…ceb9backed ARCRED51c121.43$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.54141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…3ff8backed 1WIN55c119.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5413649.3%67 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ARCRED39c119$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.712,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked ARCRED42c114.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.181,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183b…b6e9backed 1WIN61c112.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4732054.4%174 W · 146 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed ARCRED52c112$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2449143%211 W · 280 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed 1WIN54c110.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.961,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf059…e97cbacked ARCRED45c108.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.663354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked 1WIN56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4472353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5cc…e18fbacked ARCRED54c99.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed ARCRED32c90.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.262,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked ARCRED24c87.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.937149.6%184 W · 187 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef1d…3080backed 1WIN56c84.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2713258.3%77 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8443…2988backed ARCRED58c83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.141118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-66.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c20…bd85backed ARCRED29c78.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.643438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed 1WIN68c77.46$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4619449%95 W · 99 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f0…8b09backed 1WIN67c76.72$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+43.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed 1WIN61c74.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.964658.7%27 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ARCRED19c74.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.032,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed ARCRED47c72.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9518054.4%98 W · 82 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c60…1129backed 1WIN54c70.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.126141%25 W · 36 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd995…a618backed ARCRED45c65.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.343560%21 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9d1…6194backed ARCRED45c62.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.135455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba1…1734backed ARCRED45c62.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ce…7ecbbacked ARCRED55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.22839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked ARCRED36c56.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.492,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…2d03backed ARCRED45c56.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.318240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa571…404cbacked 1WIN53c55.49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.081241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed ARCRED45c54.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.454650%23 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 1WIN57c53.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.882,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked ARCRED43c52.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5471951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x196e…9277backed 1WIN58c51.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.612458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf51…af6abacked ARCRED59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked ARCRED42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180a…bd66backed ARCRED71c42.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016355.2%90 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eba…a2b8backed ARCRED45c41.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd8…e4d5backed ARCRED49c40.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed 1WIN56c39.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.693261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.