CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c2d45f17b1bd6b245b98d8a23778b1e2914273a7cd92c539d4d5861845f7bef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, 1WIN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ARCRED | 74c | 1,202$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.87 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked ARCRED | 58c | 1,079$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.62 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked 1WIN | 10c | 763.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1WIN | 22c | 659.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed 1WIN | 9c | 630.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked 1WIN | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked 1WIN | 4c | 453$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…528cbacked 1WIN | 39c | 331.67$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked 1WIN | 42c | 327.6$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…2d2dbacked 1WIN | 42c | 273$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed 1WIN | 9c | 262.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked 1WIN | 39c | 256.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…ceb9backed 1WIN | 31c | 186.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ARCRED | 74c | 167.88$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ARCRED | 64c | 166.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed 1WIN | 8c | 138$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…1f64backed 1WIN | 33c | 111.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed ARCRED | 76c | 101.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed 1WIN | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed ARCRED | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…13a8backed 1WIN | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked ARCRED | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 380 | 32.1%122 W · 258 L | -18.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 1WIN | 30c | 88.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked 1WIN | 27c | 78.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed ARCRED | 38c | 65.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked 1WIN | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed 1WIN | 47c | 61.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 160 | 23.8%38 W · 122 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked ARCRED | 67c | 61.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1WIN | 17c | 60.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked 1WIN | 32c | 58.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…3080backed 1WIN | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 132 | 58.3%77 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed 1WIN | 32c | 52.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…32d2backed ARCRED | 65c | 51.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3f…6816backed 1WIN | 26c | 51.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa571…404cbacked 1WIN | 25c | 42.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed 1WIN | 42c | 36.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…eca3backed ARCRED | 51c | 31.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…e4d5backed ARCRED | 69c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…31d1backed ARCRED | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ae…84d8backed ARCRED | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked 1WIN | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 238 | 35.3%84 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed 1WIN | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked ARCRED | 50c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 1WIN (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs1WIN won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner1WIN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.