NFL · resolved market
CLE vs. CHI: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2b87001e9fc20a7198810dea2ea328e753ffc3e45ea0841d4601d77877fd72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 4,168$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.58 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 1,099$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.49 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 980$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.4 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 51c | 958.26$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.3 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 916$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.61 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 50c | 591.54$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 18c | 532.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 346$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 51c | 341$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.91 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 45c | 306.31$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 51c | 289.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 51c | 289.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 50c | 264.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 61c | 229.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 50c | 207.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 195$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 185.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 52c | 143$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 47c | 108.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 56c | 91.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Under | 46c | 84.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 45c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 46c | 78.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 50c | 48.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 50c | 42.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9c36backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 50c | 27.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Under | 51c | 21.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 61c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…b228backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CLE vs. CHI: O/U 40.5this page
- Browns vs. BearsBears won
- Browns vs. Bears: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- CLE vs. CHI: O/U 38.5Over won
- CLE vs. CHI: O/U 39.5Over won
- Spread: CHI (-1.5)CHI won
- Spread: CLE (-1.5)CHI won
- Spread: CLE (-2.5)CHI won
- Spread: CLE (-3.5)CHI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.