MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe438a563d7f4a6adbf75789faf78076cb8564c8f277a58e5838d63f59033c859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 70c | 106,977$74,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,425.01 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 102,143$32,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,299.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 23,214$12,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,690.2 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 17,087$8,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,212.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 12,413$4,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,803.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 33c | 9,566$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.44 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Under | 74c | 7,285$5,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.17 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 5,914$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Under | 60c | 5,010$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.66 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 3,710$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 3,631$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.59 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Under | 59c | 2,571$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.24 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 1,923$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,043$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.64 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 1,024$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 826$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.66 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 33c | 805.59$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 785.76$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 585$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 54c | 358.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.93 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 30c | 315.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 305.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 30c | 273.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 258.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 223$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 46c | 215.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 47c | 170$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 69c | 170$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 63c | 119.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 33c | 96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 31c | 93.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 89.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Over | 31c | 89.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 44c | 87.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 32c | 85.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 73c | 77.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Over | 34c | 62.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Over | 25c | 52.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 52c | 52.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 50c | 50.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 46c | 49.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 44.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 54c | 40.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 48c | 39.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 36c | 38.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 56c | 33.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 30.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 42c | 30.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 52c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…b228backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 26.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 51c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 46c | 25.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 47c | 24.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 69c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.