TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,642 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Over52c1,929$1,003 inLost-$1,003.084,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under48c1,929$926 inWon+$1,003.088,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over42c940.97$395 inLost-$395.2111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under58c753$437 inWon+$316.264,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Under61c250$152 inWon+$97.5511759%69 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over39c209.22$81 inLost-$81.4110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under58c150$87 inWon+$633,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under49c76.19$37 inWon+$38.862,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770f…ac44backed Over51c74.96$38 inLost-$38.232540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115e…5019backed Over54c54.97$30 inLost-$29.599553.7%51 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed Under74c25.03$19 inWon+$6.5140753.3%217 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fea…f2c9backed Under62c24.19$15 inWon+$9.19966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fd…bb58backed Over65c20.49$13 inLost-$13.325038%19 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under58c17.28$10 inWon+$7.261,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.