TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,595 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under64c7,813$5,000 inWon+$2,812.59643.8%42 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over36c6,531$2,351 inLost-$2,351.0511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9905…add3backed Over28c1,071$300 inLost-$30010351.5%53 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under64c999.92$640 inWon+$359.971,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over35c633.14$224 inLost-$223.9552750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under65c506.32$328 inWon+$177.8710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Over37c405.41$150 inLost-$15012253.3%65 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over36c405$144 inLost-$144.44,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over58c330.68$193 inLost-$192.594,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under36c245$87 inWon+$157.598,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under64c200$128 inWon+$7231844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Under51c139.68$71 inWon+$68.446354%34 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac37…b46bbacked Over27c105.89$29 inLost-$28.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over29c74.31$21 inLost-$21.51,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Over67c50$34 inLost-$33.53627.8%10 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5974…5c32backed Over65c42.3$27 inLost-$27.55959.3%35 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over36c34.14$12 inLost-$12.243,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over35c33.6$12 inLost-$11.78234.1%28 W · 54 L-10.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.