MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df8d3978350b70e04bb7de9daba3b771efff9bad392f87ef9429d859e10b5db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 66c | 16,480$10,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,603.16 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 69c | 14,284$9,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,429.88 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 13,168$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,082.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 41c | 6,224$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 34c | 4,845$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.18 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 4,452$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 4,377$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 68c | 3,000$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.88 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 2,443$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 2,110$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.06 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 35c | 1,034$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 34c | 585$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 28c | 497.39$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 35c | 268$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 10c | 245.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 238$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Under | 70c | 217.19$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 35c | 216$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 211.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 31c | 211.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 33c | 200.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 197$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 70c | 194.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 29c | 190$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 32c | 186$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 13c | 157.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 36c | 109.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 18c | 92.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed Over | 37c | 78.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 27c | 55.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 54.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 35c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 31c | 41.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Under | 69c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb09c…fe75backed Under | 66c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.