MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x918b8ed7da372d2f165d4620634193bc55afc2016fe39b73b6bef9d27c8c28d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed No | 56c | 8,300$4,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,672.79 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 4,668$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.05 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Yes | 46c | 1,900$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 58c | 1,520$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 43c | 1,330$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.46 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 882.24$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.36 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 862.04$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.02 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 44c | 510$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 446$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 44c | 310.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 42c | 219.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 215.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 199$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed No | 55c | 160.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b0…293fbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 52c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 48c | 67.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 48c | 66.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 64c | 64.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 46c | 37.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 54c | 37.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed No | 56c | 33.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 58c | 30.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 53c | 21.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.