TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof FaZe, Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,243,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,507,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,243,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 857 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b1d…76a0backed FaZe53c158,213$83,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,407.81966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d35…94eebacked Spirit59c100,199$58,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,395.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FaZe41c89,785$36,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,775.811,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…5e4fbacked FaZe20c56,507$11,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,171.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FaZe53c41,506$21,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,827.1581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Spirit58c32,035$18,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,524.210946.8%51 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228e…4f84backed FaZe55c31,194$17,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,102.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed Spirit69c29,506$20,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,147.731283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FaZe19c27,169$5,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,162.1164852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Spirit53c26,273$14,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,249.9536453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked FaZe32c25,541$8,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,190.2641040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Spirit39c24,296$9,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,910.0333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FaZe46c22,294$10,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,189.6487047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Spirit70c19,592$13,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,952.962,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed FaZe35c19,407$6,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,758.626160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed FaZe19c17,500$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,32521048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FaZe15c17,143$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.9642142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FaZe33c17,043$5,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,705.962,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Spirit58c14,844$8,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,234.017047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Spirit71c13,445$9,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.2738358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Spirit69c13,230$9,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,097.4617062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6a…4119backed FaZe55c12,054$6,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,617.523056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Spirit62c12,000$7,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,559.9919757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed FaZe18c11,430$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.333666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked FaZe19c10,786$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.3535940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Spirit67c10,000$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked FaZe28c10,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.999148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FaZe34c9,905$3,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,372.892,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked FaZe37c9,139$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40016946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FaZe30c9,080$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Spirit53c8,863$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.8232348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed FaZe56c8,768$4,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8713540%14 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked FaZe18c8,545$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.3529127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked FaZe43c8,503$3,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,691.43834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e20…dd8abacked FaZe28c8,500$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Spirit64c8,420$5,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,025.525240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6319…d371backed FaZe37c8,200$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,024.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x183b…b6e9backed FaZe0c8,069$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5932054.4%174 W · 146 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FaZe44c8,005$3,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,505.471,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed FaZe49c8,000$3,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.3316542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Spirit63c7,933$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.762948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed FaZe38c7,895$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0006450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Spirit52c7,761$4,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,741.731,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Spirit70c7,685$5,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.4923243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed FaZe29c7,598$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.2922849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Spirit56c7,358$4,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,204.7513357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d5…2ec4backed FaZe47c7,266$3,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,414.861747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed FaZe12c7,108$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.2519451.5%100 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked FaZe40c6,872$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.2159839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…398abacked Spirit72c6,764$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed FaZe9c6,628$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.868452.4%44 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked FaZe18c6,614$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.5123145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FaZe44c6,181$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,695.369445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FaZe41c6,155$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5261,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FaZe16c6,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27e4…4803backed Spirit53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8203754.1%20 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed FaZe18c5,600$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00860853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Spirit53c5,575$2,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.2517737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed Spirit71c5,400$3,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.998246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed FaZe15c5,373$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.9510361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…12babacked Spirit46c5,359$2,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.913129%9 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Spirit69c5,300$3,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.7573658.2%428 W · 308 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x051b…a26ebacked FaZe59c5,110$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Spirit58c5,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08092456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FaZe21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed FaZe19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9923848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FaZe46c4,801$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.031,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked FaZe20c4,712$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.4819229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc536…f086backed Spirit79c4,646$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked FaZe49c4,500$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.7425555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FaZe34c4,309$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.35,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5d8…a00bbacked Spirit56c4,297$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.784647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed FaZe29c4,058$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.9942651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FaZe18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72097040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Spirit80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80021060%126 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Spirit26c4,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,96016633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed FaZe18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed FaZe44c4,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.962,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf5…29fabacked FaZe25c3,786$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked Spirit53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.584768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6be…a0f3backed Spirit72c3,612$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.1710449%51 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Spirit71c3,600$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.9929046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed FaZe55c3,544$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.1422750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Spirit71c3,521$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.1320448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed FaZe29c3,510$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.92441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed FaZe50c3,504$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.911540.9%47 W · 68 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Spirit51c3,502$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.6140264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked FaZe29c3,500$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01521424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed FaZe18c3,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.981662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fd7…7e74backed Spirit58c3,422$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e9…6d06backed FaZe29c3,225$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Spirit27c3,215$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.610635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked FaZe19c3,208$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.4549536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked Spirit78c3,123$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.85248.1%25 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4adf…d623backed Spirit76c3,043$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.626173.8%45 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FaZe44c3,035$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.31,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Spirit67c3,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.267065.7%46 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked FaZe9c3,000$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28269624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed FaZe20c2,880$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.732732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a1…9fb7backed FaZe21c2,870$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.032133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.