TailMyPicks
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
WW Teamof ARCRED, WW Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked WW Team41c30,478$12,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,908.243,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed ARCRED76c15,938$12,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,177.061283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked ARCRED58c9,740$5,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,626.13834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked WW Team48c6,296$3,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.512,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc28f…6193backed ARCRED58c6,227$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.0511354.9%62 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed ARCRED47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.995563.6%35 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed WW Team52c4,494$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.844,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked WW Team50c3,675$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.993,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed ARCRED53c3,627$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.9213655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc7e…08fdbacked ARCRED39c2,479$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.43246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ARCRED49c2,022$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.492,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked WW Team43c2,007$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.572441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0378…7634backed ARCRED56c1,798$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005959.3%35 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed WW Team43c1,633$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.319051.1%46 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ARCRED49c1,560$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.091,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked WW Team47c1,544$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.442,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked WW Team61c1,403$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.216336.5%23 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed ARCRED72c1,398$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed WW Team37c1,257$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.235953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde39…2fa1backed ARCRED15c1,166$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.161118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed WW Team58c1,091$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.662,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed WW Team40c1,087$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.355,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked WW Team55c1,085$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.9615658.3%91 W · 65 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked ARCRED56c1,084$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.5928340.3%114 W · 169 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ARCRED37c1,056$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.421,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked ARCRED56c1,028$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.911,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed WW Team52c999.41$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.944,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked WW Team55c906.14$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.897,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed WW Team48c875.4$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.326,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked WW Team42c873.36$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.915,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed WW Team38c800.6$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.21,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb12…6a81backed WW Team54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3688946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed ARCRED66c763.13$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020161.7%124 W · 77 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…0038backed ARCRED56c712.38$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd2…7260backed ARCRED43c711.99$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.161250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed WW Team49c705.56$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.112154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed ARCRED53c657.07$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.2552150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed ARCRED37c590.08$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21689630.7%275 W · 621 L-64.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed WW Team44c572.87$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.352,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5233…eb29backed WW Team46c559.86$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.862556%14 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ARCRED40c517.72$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.473,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed17…6498backed ARCRED50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed WW Team40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9938052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed ARCRED49c472.45$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23174239.1%290 W · 452 L-29.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed ARCRED46c467.57$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.652,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9a…2c72backed ARCRED69c457.26$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.511735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed ARCRED71c422.68$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b24…6c15backed ARCRED46c421.03$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.81233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed ARCRED44c416$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.515545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed ARCRED50c367.63$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8670060.1%421 W · 279 L+70.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked WW Team43c348.88$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.73354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed WW Team41c345.57$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.081,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ARCRED52c343.03$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.463,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed WW Team44c340$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.416949.7%84 W · 85 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x174e…8b63backed ARCRED48c329.97$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.984339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3fe…3f90backed ARCRED62c322.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ARCRED59c314.1$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.225,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed ARCRED62c313.65$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2620059%118 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ca8…ecd4backed WW Team32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe54…c928backed WW Team41c306.3$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.221637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked WW Team47c301.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.982,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…6be5backed WW Team33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20110446.2%48 W · 56 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed ARCRED23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920045.5%91 W · 109 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed WW Team44c299.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16850947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de4…22e9backed ARCRED78c257.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed ARCRED60c257.64$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1554955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed WW Team45c254$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.770032%224 W · 476 L-45.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04d3…7fd3backed WW Team41c252.71$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.152240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9929…15a8backed ARCRED46c252.23$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4817163.7%109 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed ARCRED60c249.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9993261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed ARCRED62c248.14$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9643175.9%327 W · 104 L+24.8wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed ARCRED59c243.81$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8574754.6%408 W · 339 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked ARCRED55c230$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.558343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed ARCRED31c224.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7238131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecb…5277backed WW Team37c218.38$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.381266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed ARCRED60c216.71$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0331741.3%131 W · 186 L-14.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…3eb8backed WW Team47c211.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.188461.9%52 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked WW Team50c207.66$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.061,05157.2%601 W · 450 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed ARCRED50c206.26$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.022,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0054…59ffbacked ARCRED56c196.75$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0813357.1%76 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ARCRED44c188.39$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.825,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed ARCRED55c182$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005766.7%38 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…c3cabacked ARCRED56c177.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76b9…a687backed ARCRED57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed ARCRED40c174.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6322940.2%92 W · 137 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd4…5416backed ARCRED52c169.32$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ARCRED44c167.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.352,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed WW Team41c166$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.482,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddd2…9120backed ARCRED62c161.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001675%12 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed WW Team39c159.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1739540.3%159 W · 236 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked WW Team47c155.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.084,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1242…9077backed WW Team49c150.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.411945.4%54 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed WW Team40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.14553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked ARCRED55c145.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.392,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…3e7ebacked ARCRED40c144.08$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked WW Team66c141.27$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0576933.8%260 W · 509 L-48.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed WW Team49c141$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.051,32544.1%584 W · 741 L+44.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed ARCRED68c140.84$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7716449.4%81 W · 83 L-20.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed ARCRED53c140.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.57142.3%30 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ARCRED56c139.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.225,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.