CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs WW Team - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29ca167ecfeecf46dc1cab40a4ec27f5f27b11fb41065ea81c7e68c7d5de0373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- WW Teamof ARCRED, WW Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked ARCRED | 1c | 68,838$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked ARCRED | 45c | 16,822$7,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,646.58 | 431 | 52.9%228 W · 203 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ARCRED | 36c | 6,555$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.27 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed WW Team | 45c | 3,112$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.62 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked WW Team | 45c | 3,098$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.91 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED | 46c | 2,479$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.4 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked WW Team | 47c | 2,200$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166 | 439 | 51.7%227 W · 212 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked WW Team | 37c | 1,174$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.23 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…2d3dbacked WW Team | 19c | 861.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.05 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked WW Team | 46c | 689.45$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.4 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed ARCRED | 39c | 606.56$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.33 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3783…0038backed WW Team | 66c | 606.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.36 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed WW Team | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked WW Team | 51c | 480.59$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.9 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed ARCRED | 56c | 422.33$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.77 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed WW Team | 51c | 410.14$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.39 | 194 | 47.4%92 W · 102 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bedfbacked ARCRED | 57c | 287.26$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.74 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…c1fbbacked WW Team | 44c | 279.31$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.75 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed ARCRED | 43c | 245.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked WW Team | 59c | 241.21$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked WW Team | 55c | 220.13$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…2e55backed ARCRED | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked ARCRED | 62c | 202.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed WW Team | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ARCRED | 65c | 191.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked WW Team | 66c | 189.32$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…e095backed WW Team | 47c | 181.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5233…eb29backed WW Team | 33c | 136.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…dac0backed ARCRED | 80c | 110.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 414 | 75.4%312 W · 102 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…c69ebacked ARCRED | 55c | 109.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked WW Team | 64c | 108.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed ARCRED | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…49c7backed ARCRED | 36c | 100.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 351 | 47.9%168 W · 183 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 20c | 100.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed ARCRED | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked ARCRED | 60c | 99.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed WW Team | 54c | 95.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed ARCRED | 42c | 90.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 164 | 61.6%101 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked ARCRED | 43c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 723 | 53.5%387 W · 336 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ARCRED | 20c | 73.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…850ebacked ARCRED | 57c | 70.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked WW Team | 75c | 66.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed WW Team | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed ARCRED | 36c | 55.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 544 | 39.7%216 W · 328 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…d954backed WW Team | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked WW Team | 65c | 46.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ARCRED | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…1ce2backed ARCRED | 52c | 40.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked WW Team | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked WW Team | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…406bbacked ARCRED | 30c | 37.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed ARCRED | 68c | 36.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed WW Team | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked WW Team | 45c | 34.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed ARCRED | 62c | 33.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…64b2backed ARCRED | 39c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed WW Team | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 245 | 58%142 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…8d9cbacked ARCRED | 35c | 28.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed WW Team | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ARCRED | 42c | 24.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…47ffbacked WW Team | 49c | 24.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed WW Team | 57c | 23.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | -27.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed WW Team | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ARCRED | 70c | 19.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…acacbacked ARCRED | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs WW Team - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship PlayoffsWW Team won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs WW Team - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: ARC (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5)WW Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.