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NBA · resolved market

NBA Summer League: San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Antonio Spursof San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,578
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,578 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8735…db43backed Utah Jazz55c17,988$9,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,815.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked San Antonio Spurs44c11,316$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,316.44520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Utah Jazz0c9,608$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0331222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed San Antonio Spurs47c8,870$4,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,683.3442842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Utah Jazz5c8,168$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.948923.6%21 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Utah Jazz50c6,539$3,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.7811235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Utah Jazz0c5,571$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.425502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed San Antonio Spurs48c5,090$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.558636%31 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed San Antonio Spurs44c4,489$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.851,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed San Antonio Spurs46c4,347$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.252339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d0…a6fcbacked Utah Jazz55c4,206$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked San Antonio Spurs58c4,000$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.5842640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Utah Jazz57c3,285$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.425151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Utah Jazz49c2,999$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.53452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked San Antonio Spurs67c2,780$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.2214551%74 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed San Antonio Spurs50c2,747$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.3517646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked San Antonio Spurs46c2,719$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.1762652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Utah Jazz49c2,628$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.4310761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Utah Jazz19c2,609$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.041,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Utah Jazz51c2,530$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.0411145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Utah Jazz50c2,487$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.485058%29 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Utah Jazz54c2,347$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.8625954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Utah Jazz55c2,263$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.8530%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Utah Jazz21c2,224$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.081,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed San Antonio Spurs47c2,156$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.3818445.7%84 W · 100 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3d…6039backed San Antonio Spurs49c1,994$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Utah Jazz1c1,950$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed San Antonio Spurs60c1,914$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.115250.7%77 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Utah Jazz27c1,529$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+79%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Utah Jazz44c1,508$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.661,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Utah Jazz22c1,405$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.446437.5%24 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed San Antonio Spurs44c1,246$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf65e…a55abacked Utah Jazz50c1,228$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6144344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Utah Jazz54c1,177$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.923348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed San Antonio Spurs51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.47683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+61.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked San Antonio Spurs54c1,171$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.5422753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b46…7437backed Utah Jazz51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…939ebacked San Antonio Spurs39c1,063$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed San Antonio Spurs47c1,055$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.5812048.3%58 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed San Antonio Spurs66c1,040$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.443366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed San Antonio Spurs49c1,016$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.435650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Utah Jazz55c999.94$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9719448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d32…ae18backed Utah Jazz60c998.76$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Utah Jazz57c904.12$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.1525651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked San Antonio Spurs47c837.66$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.6368838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Utah Jazz56c647$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9237355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Utah Jazz54c636.99$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Utah Jazz53c636.03$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.58947.2%42 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8443…2988backed San Antonio Spurs51c629.22$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.321675%12 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked San Antonio Spurs44c626$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.3717946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Utah Jazz53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3181,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…cd3cbacked Utah Jazz50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+158.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Utah Jazz54c590.05$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3173464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+38.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed San Antonio Spurs53c562.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.771163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+42.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed San Antonio Spurs51c541.69$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.6910225.5%26 W · 76 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48a4…8c2ebacked Utah Jazz37c513.22$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8970%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed San Antonio Spurs39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8218147.5%86 W · 95 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc934…215fbacked San Antonio Spurs51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2451163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Utah Jazz53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2652744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Utah Jazz53c499.38$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.6724549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Utah Jazz51c472.03$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.878,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Utah Jazz54c447.12$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24011242%47 W · 65 L-13.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Utah Jazz44c446.17$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.293,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed San Antonio Spurs47c422.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.894560%27 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc630…fbe4backed Utah Jazz48c417.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006746.3%31 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+34.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Utah Jazz33c412.84$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7536023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed San Antonio Spurs48c406.25$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.2521455.1%118 W · 96 L-1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed San Antonio Spurs51c405.16$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.41346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…4b3cbacked San Antonio Spurs54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1842259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd03…60fbbacked San Antonio Spurs46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed San Antonio Spurs48c399.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.992763%17 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed Utah Jazz51c395.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8d…f2c7backed San Antonio Spurs39c384.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.62771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac15…dd90backed Utah Jazz53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Utah Jazz53c335.7$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.078654.7%47 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed Utah Jazz54c335.22$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.023756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x987e…8d7abacked San Antonio Spurs46c326.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.091656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Utah Jazz50c320$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16014355.9%80 W · 63 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Utah Jazz50c307.76$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3352150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked San Antonio Spurs51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14714357.3%82 W · 61 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe741…84e1backed San Antonio Spurs45c299.96$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.985100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Utah Jazz32c296.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.882450%12 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked San Antonio Spurs62c281.78$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.461,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf22b…8f84backed Utah Jazz50c267.1$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.551428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4b1a…b6f3backed Utah Jazz30c265$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.56439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Utah Jazz40c250.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0930945.3%140 W · 169 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked San Antonio Spurs65c249.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.58155.6%45 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Antonio Spurs51c245.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7957550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Utah Jazz52c236$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.016,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b9…5699backed San Antonio Spurs51c229.27$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed Utah Jazz54c228.73$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.517532%24 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0dd…18debacked San Antonio Spurs45c223.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd3…0e24backed San Antonio Spurs45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Utah Jazz42c214.51$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5119135.6%68 W · 123 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…4103backed Utah Jazz53c202.34$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Utah Jazz52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Utah Jazz50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad7f…18cdbacked Utah Jazz48c199.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Utah Jazz48c199.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.996955.1%38 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked San Antonio Spurs46c199.95$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.975143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.