TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Black Phoenixof Black Phoenix, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,570 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Black Phoenix52c9,233$4,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,420.591,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Rune Eaters49c3,210$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.881,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Rune Eaters48c3,100$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.9921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Rune Eaters45c2,360$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.692456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Rune Eaters40c2,305$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.8484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd305…fdfebacked Black Phoenix67c2,241$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.621275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed Rune Eaters48c1,809$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.195540%22 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Rune Eaters63c1,362$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.412,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Black Phoenix59c1,357$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.551,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Black Phoenix60c1,350$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.281,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Black Phoenix53c1,101$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.2819447.4%92 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Rune Eaters41c1,016$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.3666851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Rune Eaters31c999.5$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.452,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Rune Eaters51c974.78$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Black Phoenix52c953.08$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.4835839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Black Phoenix63c835.08$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.0912343.9%54 W · 69 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Rune Eaters43c776.83$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.55,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf85a…960ebacked Rune Eaters61c745.02$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4524934.7%17 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x475f…82d7backed Rune Eaters58c727.36$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.241942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Rune Eaters54c709.37$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.492,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Rune Eaters32c690$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.855039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Rune Eaters43c674.45$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4325934%88 W · 171 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc6…4b55backed Black Phoenix60c641.67$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.673464.7%22 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Black Phoenix60c638.54$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.427855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked Rune Eaters26c634.62$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16514543.4%63 W · 82 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Rune Eaters36c599.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.742,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Black Phoenix58c575.49$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.944747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Rune Eaters6c574.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.632,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Black Phoenix55c557.17$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4461948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed Rune Eaters46c530$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.83043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Black Phoenix78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11011758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Black Phoenix56c499.98$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9937145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Rune Eaters42c479.77$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.510352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Black Phoenix61c457.5$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.79159.3%54 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fd…9164backed Rune Eaters22c430.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.647052.9%37 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Rune Eaters30c398.74$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.381,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Rune Eaters49c379.23$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.89445.7%43 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Black Phoenix59c369.98$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5548851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed Rune Eaters60c367$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9533146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Black Phoenix50c338$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16912748%61 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde57…666fbacked Rune Eaters38c338$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.445133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Black Phoenix59c329.09$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8537848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Black Phoenix57c322.81$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8135745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Black Phoenix67c320$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.438844.3%172 W · 216 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Black Phoenix62c317.86$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7915948.4%77 W · 82 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Black Phoenix63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4622567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Black Phoenix60c289.31$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.675641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed Rune Eaters31c262.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.322740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Rune Eaters37c254.01$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9838739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x611f…b58fbacked Rune Eaters28c249.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Black Phoenix59c248$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2112071.7%86 W · 34 L+16.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix72c244.99$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.65,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Rune Eaters41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039955.4%221 W · 178 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Black Phoenix61c243.42$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.284,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Black Phoenix49c232.75$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7526048.5%126 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked Black Phoenix54c229.03$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.817955.3%99 W · 80 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Black Phoenix65c228$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.89146.2%42 W · 49 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Black Phoenix61c226.03$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.271,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Rune Eaters50c220$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11015646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Rune Eaters38c210.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8045244.5%201 W · 251 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf206…df39backed Rune Eaters49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cf9…dbb9backed Black Phoenix57c201.47$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.376663.6%42 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Rune Eaters49c200.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5922750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Black Phoenix41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.571,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Black Phoenix55c196$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.269732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Rune Eaters40c182.41$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.672,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Rune Eaters41c179.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4164854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Rune Eaters58c171.76$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.334,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Black Phoenix59c169$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2925643.4%111 W · 145 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Black Phoenix59c168.64$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1424746.6%115 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Black Phoenix51c151.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7637922.2%84 W · 295 L-43.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Black Phoenix54c150.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.071,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Black Phoenix60c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6440666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Rune Eaters45c142.78$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.25366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Black Phoenix71c140.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.818645.2%84 W · 102 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Rune Eaters29c137.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.862,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Rune Eaters48c135$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.632,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Rune Eaters48c134.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2320046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7815…ade8backed Rune Eaters55c131.49$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.571827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-51.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe30a…fcd8backed Rune Eaters45c131.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f0c…a98fbacked Rune Eaters58c130.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.895848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Black Phoenix78c128.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21963.2%12 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick78cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed Rune Eaters46c127.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5419748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked Black Phoenix59c125.8$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.997537.3%28 W · 47 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked Rune Eaters40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15bc…4a7ebacked Rune Eaters50c123.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2120147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Black Phoenix60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4880740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked Black Phoenix60c117.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1932458%188 W · 136 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Rune Eaters35c107.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Black Phoenix44c106.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9675833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Rune Eaters38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4048242.1%203 W · 279 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Rune Eaters39c104$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5649536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Black Phoenix57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4367750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…3ff8backed Rune Eaters45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6113649.3%67 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd09f…521abacked Rune Eaters47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4711536.5%42 W · 73 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Rune Eaters46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4683543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed Rune Eaters36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621850.9%111 W · 107 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a12…e633backed Rune Eaters46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630039.7%119 W · 181 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Black Phoenix72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4172353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Black Phoenix60c99.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9220045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.