MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd9a7e4cbdbfc923760c87954e6581c608e9e642ceb4c4ceca98b31d7141ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 23,723$14,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,463.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 39c | 21,999$8,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,419.3 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 1,864$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…b22bbacked Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,518$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 75c | 858.7$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.38 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 39c | 585$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.85 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 564.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 557.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 10c | 495.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 62c | 373$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 61c | 368.61$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 281.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 39c | 259.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 245.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 56c | 183.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 47c | 163.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 39c | 129.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 32c | 96.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 71c | 84.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 39c | 84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 47c | 72.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 61c | 61.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…b228backed Under | 49c | 56.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…d2dbbacked Over | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 48cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Over | 65c | 54.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 52c | 42.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b53…db22backed Under | 59c | 39.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 49c | 33.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 56c | 31.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…7728backed Under | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 61c | 27.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6710…3374backed Under | 50c | 27.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 59c | 26.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 53c | 24.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.