MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32413b1395fc238800943cf370861d2dd315f3f3e886939b4e2781c9b1b631b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Boston Red Sox, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 45,395$18,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,818.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 58c | 29,757$17,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,497.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 59c | 12,528$7,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,172.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 65c | 4,181$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Athletics | 59c | 2,286$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.04 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 1,777$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.73 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Athletics | 59c | 1,061$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.74 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…20b0backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 952.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -6.7wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 887.92$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 834.47$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.35 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 496$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 53c | 265.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 58c | 241.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Athletics | 58c | 217.61$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Athletics | 58c | 184$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 53c | 157.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Athletics | 58c | 155.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 124$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 116.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 114.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 113.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 109.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…9223backed Athletics | 59c | 104.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 95.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Athletics | 68c | 89.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Athletics | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…3afdbacked Athletics | 57c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…632abacked Athletics | 59c | 68.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 64.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 63.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Athletics | 59c | 60.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 58.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 57.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8f14backed Athletics | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 50.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Athletics | 61c | 49.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 37.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 36.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Athletics | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Athletics | 37c | 29.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…47ffbacked Athletics | 59c | 18.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.