MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7279b22dd06554a6fbde55655d5bb347ec450383e1a0bdfc584e9f0175b55de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Athletics, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 2,215$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.26 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 30c | 1,411$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.75 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…f002backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 683.43$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 627.94$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.94 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 32c | 525.04$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 434.43$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Athletics | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…fa02backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 136.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Athletics | 32c | 99.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Athletics | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 36c | 39.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…356fbacked Athletics | 35c | 32.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 34c | 31.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Athletics | 35c | 31.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.