TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
9zof TYLOO, 9z
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,002,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,116,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,002,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 854 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb85…152fbacked 9z54c113,302$61,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,055.2516344.2%72 W · 91 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 9z57c37,951$21,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,319.0741649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked TYLOO46c36,000$16,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,38014145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TYLOO43c24,908$10,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,727.935,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked 9z63c19,209$12,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.3963057.1%360 W · 270 L+40.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed TYLOO43c19,002$8,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,093.2417554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ca…11d1backed TYLOO0c18,910$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 9z49c18,077$8,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,153.6675452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TYLOO43c17,685$7,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,544.4864852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TYLOO51c17,387$8,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,819.8275758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed 9z64c15,547$9,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,627.2436450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked 9z55c14,596$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,496.383834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed TYLOO41c14,300$5,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8358043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked TYLOO47c14,286$6,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,684.9436453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed TYLOO43c13,806$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed TYLOO41c12,500$5,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1623351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked TYLOO43c11,628$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00022354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TYLOO22c10,690$2,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.665,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed 9z56c10,266$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,516.326352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked TYLOO42c9,619$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.820248.5%98 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed TYLOO42c9,120$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,840.452,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 9z62c8,985$5,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.141,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked 9z48c8,000$3,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,164.079148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed 9z58c7,226$4,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.9314846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed 9z76c7,221$5,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.967459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed 9z58c7,000$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.993652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed 9z59c6,600$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9984658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TYLOO31c6,375$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.991,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 9z63c6,327$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.296,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed 9z74c6,156$4,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.9321854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf95e…53ffbacked TYLOO45c5,962$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.4319849.5%98 W · 100 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked TYLOO54c5,400$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90046165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked 9z67c5,172$3,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.5436440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed 9z57c5,149$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.1529449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed 9z75c5,131$3,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.756560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked 9z75c5,054$3,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.54257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked TYLOO48c4,925$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.3240137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed 9z51c4,711$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.4933043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf71…66d7backed TYLOO66c4,632$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,077.7530%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed TYLOO36c4,500$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62066551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed TYLOO25c4,455$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.758246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf6a…925fbacked TYLOO25c4,400$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.115742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e92…7e2fbacked 9z57c4,261$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed TYLOO46c4,209$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94017240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed 9z75c4,062$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.55160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked TYLOO50c4,059$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.529046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed 9z75c4,021$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.255455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed TYLOO51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0409450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed TYLOO25c3,833$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.3520448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8946…37ccbacked TYLOO42c3,733$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked TYLOO41c3,704$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.2422751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked 9z73c3,623$2,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.444751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed TYLOO39c3,556$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.362,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed 9z57c3,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.9911434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed TYLOO16c3,387$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.041,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 9z59c3,248$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.2961047.7%291 W · 319 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed TYLOO41c3,233$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33576546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 9z50c3,183$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.47,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed TYLOO51c3,117$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.3936555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 9z64c3,073$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.392,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed 9z58c3,027$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.5837946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked 9z58c2,930$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.211,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked TYLOO15c2,890$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.8341040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked TYLOO35c2,826$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed 9z59c2,800$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14823354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed TYLOO21c2,800$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58912627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed 9z57c2,650$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.57548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked TYLOO42c2,619$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1005644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed 9z75c2,609$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.33357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed 9z67c2,607$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.1226360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed TYLOO46c2,589$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.6187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed TYLOO57c2,558$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4701,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed TYLOO41c2,545$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.4718557.8%107 W · 78 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed TYLOO40c2,504$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.7431647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed TYLOO45c2,470$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed TYLOO43c2,315$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.0938841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed TYLOO39c2,242$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.4216449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked TYLOO22c2,204$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.913,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed TYLOO42c2,180$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.438739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed TYLOO48c2,100$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01628943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0f…9f36backed 9z59c2,088$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.972850%14 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked TYLOO34c2,076$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004546.7%21 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked 9z75c2,041$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.255066%33 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed 9z54c2,025$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.555236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed TYLOO26c2,025$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.3119448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb000…5ca6backed TYLOO25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed TYLOO1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked 9z51c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97069624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked 9z51c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.9921522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed 9z49c1,955$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.5512118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked 9z58c1,874$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.3120045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed TYLOO43c1,865$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80224940.6%101 W · 148 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked TYLOO57c1,848$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.362441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed 9z59c1,838$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.7824262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked 9z58c1,752$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.128258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed TYLOO33c1,705$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.8710150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4309…03a6backed TYLOO50c1,646$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.851747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked TYLOO58c1,635$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.8138054.5%207 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked 9z70c1,600$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48818860.1%113 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6da…fb9abacked TYLOO46c1,572$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.