TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbe6f…b760

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
664
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT31647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 316 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 3 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$193.39
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Legacy - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.35
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$306.24
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$165
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$453.6
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+102.7%+$304.03
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.3
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.16
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.12
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$147.23
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$116.44
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.17
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35.12
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$106.87
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic - Map 1 Winnerbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41.86
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$164.91
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.48
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Cbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$996Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$995.88
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Cbacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Counter-Strike: NIP vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Bbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$356.55
Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 - Map 1 Winnerbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$20.57
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 4 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.94
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$97.91
Showing 25 of 316 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT25547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 255 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.18
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$117.16
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.68
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$81.63
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$64.11
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.31
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.06
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.08
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.2
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.3
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.16
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42.9
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.51
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35.59
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Iron Wing - Game 1 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40.38
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.24
Team Liquid to win 2-0?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.01
LGD Gaming to win 2-0?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,004Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$517.06
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 4 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 3 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$516Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+76.4%+$394.74
Showing 25 of 255 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$301
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$235
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$166.04
Spread: France (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$87.12
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$610
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.77
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$497.31
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.75
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)backed Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35.37
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47.67
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.43
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.87
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.76
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.04
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.56
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.74
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$161.55
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.55
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.4
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80.97
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.54
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$236.11
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.3
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$140
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.4
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$99.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+310.7%+$272.34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$164
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$234
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+71.7%+$71.73
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$28.74
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$76.8
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$16.2
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$54.09
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$31.8
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.47
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.82
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.3
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.99
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.7
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+64.8%+$45.01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.4
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$15.73
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$21.9
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$20.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$12.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.2
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$239
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.