TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,025,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$938,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,025,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 812 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x20eb…bc89backed No52c25,091$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No36c12,720$4,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.5135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No53c11,315$5,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,978.5935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b49…ab21backed No21c11,259$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.651526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0efc…4cdebacked No34c11,001$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,697.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd8…d4e7backed No0c10,994$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No27c10,782$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.4810528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes60c10,201$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,100.836060%36 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+125.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No64c10,193$6,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,497.57745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed Yes62c9,363$5,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,588.292240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No47c7,803$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.13855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No29c7,694$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,26516743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed No50c7,064$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,549.735851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked No19c7,035$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.5821525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c6,934$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.933103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes67c6,927$4,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No27c6,683$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.4235921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No70c6,252$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,378.8220143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe885…38efbacked No41c6,086$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.084839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes64c6,031$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.9229653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ee9…2673backed Yes39c5,890$2,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,568.891668.8%11 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.37per pick32cpaid+110.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No2c5,545$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6715436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed Yes77c5,360$4,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.836165.6%40 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No36c5,264$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.5250130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No10c5,184$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.9320823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x515e…8309backed Yes80c5,183$4,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.51560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No14c4,815$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.7142329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes65c4,352$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.8433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No14c4,310$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.991,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes71c4,169$2,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1941471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No17c4,022$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.1316125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes44c3,968$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.486347.6%30 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes38c3,902$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.5521751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed No15c3,833$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.672334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8340…6f7bbacked No9c3,743$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+268.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes62c3,570$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.0431241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes48c3,533$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.752850%14 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes79c3,474$2,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3e…6693backed Yes72c3,337$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c3,294$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.9764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes48c3,232$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.6536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No49c3,074$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.939139.6%36 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd5…8d10backed No14c3,059$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.78875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No28c2,917$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.257360.3%44 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes57c2,829$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.9948923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No15c2,828$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.6811818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5654…b33ebacked Yes80c2,671$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.692070%14 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed No21c2,646$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.132556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No28c2,628$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.0526429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes67c2,583$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.8538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed No49c2,575$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.334645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes77c2,573$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.39887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No5c2,540$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.772742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No43c2,536$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10224759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes70c2,447$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.2416961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No21c2,408$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.529825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed No15c2,333$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.141926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+143.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes67c2,265$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.0428734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes39c2,215$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No10c2,144$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.092438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes64c2,119$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.2711357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No42c2,061$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8575450%27 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No14c2,009$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2821521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes71c2,000$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.913154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked No37c1,993$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.595332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x298f…1601backed Yes31c1,962$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.922634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes47c1,933$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.6715347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f47…9387backed Yes67c1,928$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.355525.5%14 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No24c1,889$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.530635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked No24c1,888$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.323250%16 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No35c1,886$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.2113441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes74c1,866$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.2411842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes36c1,823$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.3615740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed No26c1,798$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No41c1,746$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71625843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No20c1,720$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.0336634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No26c1,712$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.228438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No40c1,710$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.85515.9%3 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes43c1,699$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.145836.2%21 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No49c1,691$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.6416638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…8f34backed Yes68c1,657$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.122356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+67.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f3…85debacked No68c1,654$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.823030%9 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No68c1,654$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.814738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes71c1,652$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.381040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f68…d672backed No18c1,638$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Yes36c1,637$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.628159.3%48 W · 33 L+11.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No45c1,630$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.567946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes31c1,629$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.9711323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes54c1,625$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.7667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No22c1,600$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.175238.5%20 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes67c1,587$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.4219449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes66c1,586$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.7824149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No22c1,583$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0112951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed No30c1,570$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4713517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+309.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0689…5813backed No37c1,561$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.891963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbce2…7eecbacked Yes63c1,538$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.522748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c1,511$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.055071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed No68c1,510$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.748633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa619…1103backed No27c1,503$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.891346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No45c1,478$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.2121726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.