Middle East · resolved market
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e5228c4aa228752fb75ec1ffcb315a5f2fef812d746ceb6601cee285366d1a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,025,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $938,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,025,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 812 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20eb…bc89backed No | 52c | 25,091$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 36c | 12,720$4,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,583.51 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 53c | 11,315$5,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,978.59 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…ab21backed No | 21c | 11,259$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…4cdebacked No | 34c | 11,001$3,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,697.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…d4e7backed No | 0c | 10,994$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 27c | 10,782$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900.48 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 60c | 10,201$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,100.83 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 64c | 10,193$6,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,497.5 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 62c | 9,363$5,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,588.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 47c | 7,803$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.1 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 29c | 7,694$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 50c | 7,064$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.73 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 19c | 7,035$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.58 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 6,934$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.93 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 6,927$4,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.4 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 6,683$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.42 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 70c | 6,252$4,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,378.82 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 41c | 6,086$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.08 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 64c | 6,031$3,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.92 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…2673backed Yes | 39c | 5,890$2,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,568.89 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 2c | 5,545$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed Yes | 77c | 5,360$4,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.83 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 36c | 5,264$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.52 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 10c | 5,184$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.93 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed Yes | 80c | 5,183$4,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 14c | 4,815$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.71 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 65c | 4,352$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.84 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 4,310$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes | 71c | 4,169$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 17c | 4,022$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.13 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 44c | 3,968$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.48 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 38c | 3,902$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.55 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 15c | 3,833$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.67 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…6f7bbacked No | 9c | 3,743$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +268.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 62c | 3,570$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.04 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes | 48c | 3,533$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 79c | 3,474$2,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…6693backed Yes | 72c | 3,337$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 3,294$2,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.97 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 48c | 3,232$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.65 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 49c | 3,074$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.93 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed No | 14c | 3,059$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 28c | 2,917$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.25 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 57c | 2,829$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.99 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 15c | 2,828$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.68 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…b33ebacked Yes | 80c | 2,671$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 21c | 2,646$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 28c | 2,628$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.05 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 67c | 2,583$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.85 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 49c | 2,575$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.33 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 77c | 2,573$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 5c | 2,540$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 43c | 2,536$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 70c | 2,447$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.24 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 21c | 2,408$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.52 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed No | 15c | 2,333$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 67c | 2,265$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.04 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 39c | 2,215$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.1 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 2,144$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.09 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 64c | 2,119$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.27 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 42c | 2,061$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 14c | 2,009$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.28 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 71c | 2,000$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.91 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 37c | 1,993$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.59 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…1601backed Yes | 31c | 1,962$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,933$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.67 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 67c | 1,928$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.35 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 24c | 1,889$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.5 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 24c | 1,888$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.32 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 35c | 1,886$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.21 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 74c | 1,866$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.24 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 36c | 1,823$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.36 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 26c | 1,798$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 41c | 1,746$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 20c | 1,720$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.03 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 26c | 1,712$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 40c | 1,710$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.85 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 43c | 1,699$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.14 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 49c | 1,691$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.64 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…8f34backed Yes | 68c | 1,657$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…85debacked No | 68c | 1,654$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.82 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 68c | 1,654$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.81 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 71c | 1,652$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f68…d672backed No | 18c | 1,638$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 36c | 1,637$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.62 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +11.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 45c | 1,630$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.56 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 31c | 1,629$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.97 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 1,625$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.76 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 22c | 1,600$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.17 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 67c | 1,587$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.42 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 66c | 1,586$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.78 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 22c | 1,583$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.01 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed No | 30c | 1,570$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0689…5813backed No | 37c | 1,561$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.89 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…7eecbacked Yes | 63c | 1,538$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,511$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 68c | 1,510$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.74 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…1103backed No | 27c | 1,503$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 1,478$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.21 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?this page
- Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
- Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.