Middle East · resolved market
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa65e9c75c4ad990e97e598f4c279887da5d51e0dddb781fcca0691c1c2798d9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c5a…c318backed Yes | 0c | 37,609$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 7c | 17,005$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,057$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 3c | 6,205$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,522$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.08 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 4,127$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.59 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 2c | 3,960$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,669$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 2,666$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.72 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,397$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 7c | 2,367$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 7c | 2,249$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 16c | 2,150$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.52 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,005$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,977$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,840$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,781$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…e751backed Yes | 20c | 1,728$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f68…d672backed Yes | 7c | 1,366$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 1,364$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 15c | 1,350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.41 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,334$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,215$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 9c | 1,181$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,098$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 10c | 1,031$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,005$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 12c | 869.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed Yes | 10c | 707.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 705.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…87a3backed Yes | 1c | 686.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 24c | 675.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x943e…32d6backed No | 80c | 603$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 8c | 585.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…658dbacked No | 80c | 566$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…7367backed Yes | 8c | 559.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 20c | 554.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 553.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 15c | 552.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3c…e104backed No | 80c | 539$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 8c | 520$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f920backed Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…4f15backed Yes | 4c | 483.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 8c | 476.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 10c | 449.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 446.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 3c | 412.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 14c | 400.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 9c | 375$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 8c | 346.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c80…a49dbacked Yes | 10c | 335.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 7c | 326.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 306.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed Yes | 7c | 285.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…ce71backed Yes | 7c | 229.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 228.6$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 10c | 210$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…9725backed Yes | 11c | 208.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 202.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ea…3777backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 70c | 163.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…2d9dbacked Yes | 9c | 163.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…f572backed Yes | 10c | 150.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 77c | 146.9$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 64c | 138.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x363f…e411backed Yes | 7c | 135.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 16c | 125.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 10c | 121.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 10c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…809dbacked Yes | 12c | 93.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 61c | 84.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 59c | 84.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0e…e6d1backed Yes | 22c | 75.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 44c | 65.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 75c | 51.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…3145backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…89debacked No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 74c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?this page
- Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No won
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.