TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$242,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,302 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c5a…c318backed Yes0c37,609$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-44.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes7c17,005$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.611833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c10,057$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.45071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes3c6,205$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0814228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10205%1 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+108.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes9c4,522$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.081471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c4,127$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.591,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed Yes2c3,960$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.162958.6%17 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+20.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes11c3,669$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4207360.3%44 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c2,666$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7250130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c2,397$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6235921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes7c2,367$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.645836.2%21 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes7c2,249$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9927643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes16c2,150$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.5235631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes3c2,005$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes5c1,977$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.616125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682e…70bdbacked Yes11c1,840$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,781$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6742311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c9…e751backed Yes20c1,728$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f68…d672backed Yes7c1,366$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes7c1,364$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.82515.9%3 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8932…eb14backed Yes15c1,350$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.413342.4%14 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+33.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes7c1,334$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6136634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes8c1,215$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes9c1,181$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.027627.6%21 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c1,098$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.792217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes10c1,031$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7212616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c1,005$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.683717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked Yes12c869.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.373855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes6c800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.144214.3%6 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a60…2a67backed Yes10c707.66$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.191421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes5c705.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3828827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…87a3backed Yes1c686.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes24c675.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16011038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x943e…32d6backed No80c603$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes8c585.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.424712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5b…658dbacked No80c566$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…7367backed Yes8c559.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes20c554.15$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.676238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c553.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.812223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes15c552.42$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7224149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda3c…e104backed No80c539$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes8c520$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.493103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193522.9%8 W · 27 L-7.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-51.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f920backed Yes7c500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55f…4f15backed Yes4c483.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205246.2%24 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes8c476.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.972036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes10c449.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3221531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c446.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.954625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes3c412.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.165442.6%23 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+45.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes14c400.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.736553.8%35 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes9c375$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.755127.5%14 W · 37 L-8.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes8c346.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.413043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c80…a49dbacked Yes10c335.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.186342.9%27 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0354…2913backed Yes7c326.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.92638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes8c306.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.111039.7%10 W · 93 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes11c300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.56550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77317.8%13 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba2f…25e6backed Yes7c285.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.312128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2fa…ce71backed Yes7c229.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No79c228.6$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.624759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes10c210$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6322547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d01…9725backed Yes11c208.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes9c202.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.615347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ea…3777backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No70c163.29$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7331241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a6…2d9dbacked Yes9c163.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9edf…f572backed Yes10c150.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No77c146.9$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.043964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes7c145$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.155440.7%22 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No64c138.95$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3912046.7%56 W · 64 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+52.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x363f…e411backed Yes7c135.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes16c125.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes10c121.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.731010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes10c101$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.544231%13 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+58.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd25c…809dbacked Yes12c93.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No61c84.89$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9232243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No59c84.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.817661.8%47 W · 29 L+16.5wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+46.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e0e…e6d1backed Yes22c75.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes44c65.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No75c51.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.816366.7%42 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes30c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0411452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0412638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11bf…3145backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f82…89debacked No69c16.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed No74c16.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.171942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No75c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.479981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.