Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb17bc42314c7879e6bde4a15136a9a0f16605f6e530462b9dad774d1e63d86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $459,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $338,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $459,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 3c | 15,883$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.94 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 5c | 13,688$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 12c | 12,022$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.39 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 6c | 11,442$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.83 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…29bdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,216$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8922backed Yes | 1c | 10,666$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…99e2backed Yes | 20c | 10,000$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.77 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…83cdbacked Yes | 7c | 9,948$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.04 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 9,880$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.64 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked No | 80c | 7,926$6,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 6,890$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.29 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,510$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 5,746$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,631$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.31 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Yes | 4c | 5,200$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 1c | 5,091$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 4,832$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.26 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Yes | 5c | 4,507$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +624.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…c676backed Yes | 0c | 4,040$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 9c | 3,887$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.74 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,621$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 2,949$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 10c | 2,808$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.98 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 3c | 2,719$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb0…fdc3backed Yes | 5c | 2,676$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,441$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 9c | 2,334$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.61 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,266$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 2,264$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.97 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a42…3d14backed Yes | 4c | 2,250$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 3c | 2,178$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 6c | 2,128$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,128$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…b33ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,999$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,964$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af3…bfa1backed Yes | 3c | 1,894$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…6510backed Yes | 27c | 1,821$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,778$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…cff9backed Yes | 11c | 1,711$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…7286backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Yes | 2c | 1,674$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,616$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,606$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…7b03backed Yes | 1c | 1,583$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…006ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,428$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb874…abb3backed Yes | 3c | 1,417$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,365$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 3c | 1,357$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,333$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,328$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,127$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,067$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 4c | 1,060$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 5c | 1,014$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 72c | 989.89$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.91 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 973.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 5c | 962.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 3c | 900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 891.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 7c | 850.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 843.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 4c | 819.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 5c | 804.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 15c | 800$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 766.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 22c | 744.31$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 2c | 744$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 2c | 729.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 11c | 705.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9055backed Yes | 27c | 641.15$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 7c | 609.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed Yes | 10c | 599.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 3c | 595.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 3c | 588$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…ce71backed Yes | 4c | 580.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 5c | 576.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 4c | 542.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 3c | 542.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 9c | 542.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 9c | 522.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 9c | 514.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 507.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 7c | 475.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 21c | 466.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 456.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed Yes | 4c | 453.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…e9a7backed Yes | 5c | 445.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 4c | 438.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…d1b1backed Yes | 4c | 403.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 78c | 383.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?this page
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
- Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.