TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
magicof FUT Esports, magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$574,381
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$616,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $574,381 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed magic62c75,894$47,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,466.521,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed FUT Esports27c49,433$13,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,564.413548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed FUT Esports48c13,623$6,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,539.074553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed magic43c11,256$4,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,415.8710749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked FUT Esports50c9,893$4,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.2732548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed FUT Esports57c8,772$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed FUT Esports49c6,699$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,254.7310056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FUT Esports32c5,577$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.242,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a7…dc87backed FUT Esports56c4,601$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.761030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-48.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed magic70c4,580$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.7937157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked FUT Esports33c4,463$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.3775245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports30c4,424$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.092,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked magic52c3,993$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.559565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked FUT Esports44c3,840$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70016946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed magic63c3,653$2,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.3888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed FUT Esports38c3,640$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.172650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports33c3,386$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.4187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed magic66c3,310$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.3440264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked magic68c3,266$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.551,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed FUT Esports41c3,125$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.987844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed magic79c3,053$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.2617062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed magic63c3,041$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.7719468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports56c3,000$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.9975450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked magic77c2,968$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.861,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed FUT Esports59c2,953$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.1530153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked FUT Esports50c2,892$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.011,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked magic41c2,782$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.131,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports31c2,609$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.841,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FUT Esports31c2,511$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.353,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked FUT Esports59c2,484$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.360953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked FUT Esports42c2,476$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.043426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FUT Esports28c2,454$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.875,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked magic61c2,421$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.8819236.5%70 W · 122 L-15.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked magic66c2,416$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.3340253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed magic62c2,277$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.032,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked FUT Esports58c2,222$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.711,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed magic44c2,144$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.542,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked FUT Esports33c2,140$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70014147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe46d…7e4dbacked magic52c2,032$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.251952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked magic42c1,896$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.6475245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked magic44c1,747$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.092665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed FUT Esports41c1,700$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6978652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed FUT Esports25c1,672$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.541,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked FUT Esports56c1,623$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.8114934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed FUT Esports39c1,544$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009023.3%21 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed FUT Esports31c1,424$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.4510036%36 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4adf…d623backed FUT Esports32c1,422$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506173.8%45 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4905…1683backed FUT Esports33c1,388$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.982450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed magic74c1,329$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.7712451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6421…045dbacked magic45c1,327$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.9616248.1%78 W · 84 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed magic66c1,320$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.132,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FUT Esports19c1,317$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.672,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd772…1d8fbacked FUT Esports49c1,246$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6102441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FUT Esports17c1,217$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.741,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed FUT Esports43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51650846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3d…51b8backed FUT Esports36c1,128$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4067247.2%34 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked magic44c1,045$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.4518444%81 W · 103 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x968b…87f6backed FUT Esports39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed FUT Esports18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804134.1%14 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked FUT Esports46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4608562.4%53 W · 32 L+14.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+33.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed FUT Esports57c952.38$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.8612937.2%48 W · 81 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked FUT Esports24c888$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5735847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe6…94f1backed FUT Esports37c856.13$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.863243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1f…7f94backed FUT Esports24c842.83$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.285133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed FUT Esports36c825$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.919840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked magic43c795.05$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1836152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed magic42c785.17$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.44650%23 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FUT Esports36c765.16$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.484,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FUT Esports31c740$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.593,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed FUT Esports58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40015150.3%76 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…2d72backed magic42c681.76$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.421533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed magic44c642.09$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.5727438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked magic66c606.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.065651.8%29 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked FUT Esports34c590.62$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6921146%97 W · 114 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FUT Esports31c515.19$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.063,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed magic74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13045646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed FUT Esports49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24517737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed magic79c500$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4641475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19fb…bd68backed magic67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1652100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FUT Esports35c500$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.382,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed FUT Esports34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed FUT Esports36c490$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.455738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45da…72febacked FUT Esports40c485.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.176845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cf…427fbacked FUT Esports50c450$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbe…1f4abacked magic74c447.12$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.126555.4%36 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acf…ead4backed FUT Esports45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fd…3193backed FUT Esports53c433.96$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…195cbacked FUT Esports57c432.4$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.471827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x891a…f778backed FUT Esports40c399.78$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.913043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc1…9a14backed FUT Esports46c390.8$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.773243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed FUT Esports18c387.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6915132.5%49 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed magic70c367$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.091,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d827backed FUT Esports37c361.97$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.932433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked magic69c361.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6646165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed FUT Esports43c360$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6119035.8%68 W · 122 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed FUT Esports56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20032344.3%143 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed magic56c356.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3535344.8%158 W · 195 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…d647backed FUT Esports59c339.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…5fafbacked FUT Esports59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025045.2%113 W · 137 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed FUT Esports32c329.81$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.546942%29 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.