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Middle East · resolved market

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$781,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$781,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $781,907 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 924 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52b7…4597backed No41c36,292$14,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,778.9212654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No47c32,179$15,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,261.8537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b01…d086backed Yes59c20,597$12,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,357.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes48c20,163$9,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,458.6825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd76a…79acbacked Yes48c17,249$8,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,001.853125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No55c12,000$6,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,628.726262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…13a7backed Yes56c11,890$6,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,286.441450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0133…64bcbacked Yes39c9,733$3,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,982.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+98.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes58c9,593$5,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,983.1236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4669…99c0backed No45c9,238$4,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,146.242462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No73c8,788$6,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,397.712250%11 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes69c8,745$6,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,691.769930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95fd…7e04backed Yes47c7,929$3,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,236.891747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.5wins+0.32per pick15cpaid+186%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6e41…ce2fbacked Yes66c7,748$5,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes38c6,733$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,172.1515740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c6,610$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7717414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No61c6,189$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.174143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22a3…9447backed Yes68c5,962$4,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No62c5,903$3,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,657.458937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes55c5,750$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.57938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef17…e3fbbacked Yes75c5,403$4,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.47850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No60c5,386$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.7913850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f15…f295backed Yes57c5,256$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.92128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+45.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No43c4,851$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.674843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c4,810$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.755071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No36c4,800$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.5911615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb31…0b4fbacked Yes63c4,684$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.52532%8 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked No34c4,500$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.487540%30 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c4,495$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.6758927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed Yes34c4,308$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.023522.9%8 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes34c3,818$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.9520617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No25c3,679$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.879535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c3,599$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.4264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No41c3,545$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.5713246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No31c3,522$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.6350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No51c3,472$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.3934143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes67c3,447$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.4813518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x147b…65f5backed Yes64c3,405$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No5c3,400$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3211222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes46c3,332$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.8267841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes56c3,305$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.525550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes43c3,295$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.866936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes54c3,229$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.213040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes41c3,147$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.547520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No41c3,114$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.3738247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ebf…5bfabacked No54c3,018$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.335135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No64c2,986$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.2420749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8179…2d3fbacked Yes62c2,906$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.37250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,870$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.041,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes71c2,801$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.096450%32 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No60c2,796$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.3213746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No12c2,738$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1342311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No42c2,734$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.994141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed Yes74c2,708$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.676165.6%40 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes36c2,572$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.7440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed No63c2,558$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6002748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No30c2,531$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.1911728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes54c2,474$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.9228438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5a…c744backed Yes68c2,469$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.922040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes55c2,386$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.369028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5145…324dbacked No41c2,384$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.752240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+161.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed Yes63c2,372$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.721747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed No41c2,368$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.268159.3%48 W · 33 L+11.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d9a…33a1backed No41c2,355$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No27c2,339$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.4916739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No55c2,308$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.9524149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x830b…0a93backed Yes66c2,277$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.074459.1%26 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+50.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x72c9…3779backed Yes58c2,259$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.821947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes61c2,248$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.4914854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fb6…34e5backed Yes58c2,244$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No46c2,175$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.738744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfef4…d202backed Yes57c2,168$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.94875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d66…5b06backed Yes55c2,133$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.56650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a0…866ebacked Yes43c2,087$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.645945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes51c2,030$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.0628943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517b…be02backed Yes39c2,025$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.722927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes67c2,000$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.413544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2808036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x582a…7bb2backed No1c2,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked No44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.995642.9%24 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e52…98fbbacked Yes57c1,931$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.352755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No57c1,929$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.1310737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No39c1,843$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.7340939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97d…3874backed No15c1,815$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes77c1,814$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.0213950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf829…e771backed Yes64c1,809$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.941376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+80.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd23a…5fa9backed Yes63c1,800$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448b…c94abacked Yes71c1,795$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.941580%12 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+58.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x809b…22a7backed No4c1,782$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No4c1,769$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0412223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed No25c1,755$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.614839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bd2…aafebacked Yes69c1,746$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf75…65cbbacked Yes43c1,721$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+91.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd25f…b6e1backed Yes22c1,720$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.76450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+91%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a4a…c3b0backed Yes47c1,706$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.482524%6 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x770d…29c7backed Yes52c1,670$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.96540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No39c1,624$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.7348630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a1…2f95backed No36c1,600$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.395341.5%22 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3df…03a3backed Yes49c1,596$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.