TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0e52…98fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$73.62
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+120.3%+$59.33
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$55.88
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+75.3%+$829.35
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$150.05
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.33
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.79
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$681.63
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,046Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$440.41
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+108.4%+$145.14
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+74%+$100.83
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$82.92
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.72
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$101.52
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$135.35
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$133.16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,586Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$766.61
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$301.43
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$34.25
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$21.45
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.29
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.66
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$113.25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.99
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+491.4%+$246.56
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.86
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$172
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$85.48
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.98
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$97.89
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$53.16
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$61.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+114.9%+$25.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56%+$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$11.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.