Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49ff7ceb5b773962f2358d4de8a17073a16df451083ec52373380c8670c591e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd837…e931backed Yes | 3c | 2,615$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 77c | 1,501$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.94 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 6c | 1,475$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 28c | 1,445$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.36 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 976.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…739cbacked Yes | 6c | 895.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 648.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 56c | 629.21$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.78 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 67c | 527.63$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.52 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 35c | 466.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.62 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 443.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd59c…cc11backed Yes | 6c | 419$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes | 3c | 314.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed Yes | 42c | 292.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…4c8fbacked Yes | 43c | 282.9$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…e362backed No | 70c | 271.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 17c | 266.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadff…9ab1backed Yes | 59c | 264.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…4668backed Yes | 4c | 262.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 52c | 252.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 243.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…5bc6backed Yes | 6c | 240.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 49c | 236.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked Yes | 64c | 220$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed Yes | 38c | 218.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…c615backed Yes | 30c | 187.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 30c | 159.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…bfcdbacked Yes | 65c | 149.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 37c | 142.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 140.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 40c | 137.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 37c | 122$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…98fbbacked No | 72c | 120.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 25c | 116.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 74c | 116.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…d0a3backed Yes | 68c | 113.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 44c | 113.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…1763backed Yes | 37c | 113.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 63c | 104.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 48c | 103.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 68c | 101$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 69c | 100.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…1066backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 59c | 97.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 56c | 94.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed No | 47c | 78.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf3…1eabbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…33a4backed Yes | 61c | 63.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 60.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41a2…5ccfbacked No | 40c | 59.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e9…9f08backed Yes | 69c | 56.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 58c | 50.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2e…0b95backed No | 36c | 49.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +102%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed No | 32c | 47.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…d756backed No | 55c | 46.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed Yes | 65c | 44.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 78c | 44.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…6d45backed Yes | 64c | 44.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 32c | 43.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…2fa5backed Yes | 44c | 42.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe925…7c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 42.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 31c | 40.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 32c | 37.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf570…aed2backed Yes | 43c | 36.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…ee29backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 36c | 30.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…ec61backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 28.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…a4b4backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 46c | 22.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…491fbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b19…a9ccbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…1931backed Yes | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked No | 67c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.05 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.