Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f9143b5c37be6829a0cd89127d146cb7eccf777e17bd355b06641641a14192f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1579…cc72backed Yes | 51c | 985.49$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 868.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 31c | 834.94$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.04 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 813.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 32c | 676.02$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.65 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 79c | 629.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed No | 28c | 584$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…510bbacked Yes | 67c | 509.99$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 9c | 424$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 74c | 350$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 31c | 345.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 24c | 295.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 7c | 291.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 25c | 231.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 62c | 229.83$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.79 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 78c | 213.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Yes | 22c | 209.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed No | 71c | 197.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 155$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 38c | 107.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…305abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…dfd5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 94.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 94.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…b0fdbacked Yes | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 38c | 86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Yes | 69c | 79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 67.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 64.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…eb2abacked No | 68c | 61.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…4577backed Yes | 20c | 55.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…aa59backed Yes | 34c | 55.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 33c | 53.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 52.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 32c | 49.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 61c | 44.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 62c | 30.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 60c | 17.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.05 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.