Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b405dfa1d9ea2a8f0e97b1052ef2b0000f67bddff0242ff4ec406c6e3df5cfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…d013backed Yes | 9c | 6,490$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 23c | 2,020$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadff…9ab1backed Yes | 23c | 1,912$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed Yes | 18c | 1,750$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 20c | 1,709$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.45 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,578$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 17c | 840.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 836.82$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.73 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 7c | 721.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 5c | 692.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 20c | 552$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Yes | 17c | 539.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 419.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 28c | 331.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 15c | 312$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 75c | 296.35$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 28c | 223.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…2077backed Yes | 26c | 210.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 209$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…f45abacked Yes | 22c | 207.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Yes | 23c | 183.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…1763backed Yes | 10c | 182$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce7…7adbbacked Yes | 29c | 175.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…184abacked Yes | 23c | 139.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…f5e9backed Yes | 28c | 100.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 70c | 87.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…6322backed Yes | 12c | 83.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…4c8fbacked Yes | 15c | 77.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 72.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…e190backed Yes | 27c | 68.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 17c | 66.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…4930backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2e…0b95backed No | 79c | 61.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +102%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 28c | 49.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 26c | 49.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…2fa5backed Yes | 27c | 47.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 41.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 75c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.05 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.