Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5547cd34b9d57dba0ed3d170b04dfe5dca0bc94b745554e953736309eda77b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,118$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.51 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 34c | 1,207$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.88 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,132$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 13c | 380$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 5c | 300.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 70c | 288.01$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Yes | 16c | 277.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed Yes | 17c | 269.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 58c | 256.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.74 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed No | 59c | 242.73$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…6813backed Yes | 13c | 225.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 221.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 206.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…dfd5backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 8c | 182.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 77c | 181.65$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 21c | 174.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed Yes | 55c | 171.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 145.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 56c | 138.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 74c | 107.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 16c | 106.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 19c | 72.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked Yes | 49c | 39.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 74c | 33.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…73b1backed No | 79c | 29.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e3…c0b8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…df0dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.05 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.