Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01aaece056f8163129041a6a8e0fcfca7ca331df1ca652f8084ce60b46e6d870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 16c | 8,756$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,317.22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 8,660$6,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,537.04 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 66c | 3,290$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.03 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 2,378$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.76 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,337$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,978$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.66 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 1,797$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.52 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 10c | 1,541$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +135%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 15c | 1,494$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…0700backed Yes | 14c | 1,289$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…a0a3backed Yes | 16c | 1,285$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…611bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,237$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 3c | 1,159$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…2065backed No | 33c | 1,153$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 15c | 1,021$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 878.91$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.2 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 10c | 800.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 67c | 769.73$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.01 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…58bcbacked No | 25c | 748.55$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 30c | 748.49$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed No | 2c | 734.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 79c | 725.21$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.5 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e9…d89fbacked Yes | 68c | 713.69$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…6760backed No | 17c | 709.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 645.19$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.82 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 12c | 555.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 11c | 550.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.25 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 27c | 535.78$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.12 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 31c | 517.17$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.89 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 23c | 495.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.15 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 43c | 487.53$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.89 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…cc72backed No | 45c | 478.53$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 18c | 463.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.02 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 20c | 460.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed Yes | 10c | 457$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc473…dfdfbacked No | 10c | 454.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 56c | 413.93$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.32 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7f92backed No | 22c | 412.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 57c | 403.57$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.73 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 55c | 399.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 58c | 384.19$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.28 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 367.83$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 33c | 332.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 58c | 325.12$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…86afbacked No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…5bc6backed Yes | 15c | 298.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 40c | 293.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 10c | 283$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +418.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…13fbbacked No | 38c | 271.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes | 63c | 268.2$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 14c | 266.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 17c | 245.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.94 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…f5e9backed Yes | 44c | 240.51$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 9c | 234.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.21 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 28c | 233.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked Yes | 73c | 230$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59c…cc11backed Yes | 42c | 221.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…5a02backed No | 7c | 220.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes | 32c | 206.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 6c | 199.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…f45abacked Yes | 48c | 197.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 33c | 195.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…f8e7backed Yes | 63c | 192.6$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…ab06backed Yes | 76c | 191.75$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 15c | 183$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 31c | 181.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 60c | 165.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…d048backed No | 66c | 150.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…301dbacked No | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed No | 15c | 145.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 54c | 136.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…d756backed No | 48c | 128.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed No | 30c | 128.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd131…9422backed No | 10c | 123.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 10c | 115.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18da…91c4backed Yes | 16c | 114.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…4c8fbacked Yes | 43c | 114.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 58c | 109.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 105.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed No | 66c | 105.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…6f84backed Yes | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 41c | 104.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 101.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 65c | 96.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 18c | 96.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…0afabacked Yes | 12c | 91.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +307%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47be…924cbacked No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 13c | 87.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 69c | 79.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…bc18backed No | 68c | 73.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 70.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…8f86backed Yes | 66c | 68.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 68c | 58.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 53.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…bed7backed Yes | 44c | 53.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…5885backed No | 37c | 51.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 48c | 50.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $4.05 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.