TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,966 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes16c8,756$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,317.223046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c8,660$6,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,537.0493840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No66c3,290$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.033562.9%22 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No17c2,378$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7627322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf81…697dbacked Yes17c2,337$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes67c1,978$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.667044.3%31 W · 39 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+33.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No32c1,797$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.5230839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No10c1,541$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+135%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No15c1,494$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf582…0700backed Yes14c1,289$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.06633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+96.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc9…a0a3backed Yes16c1,285$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.611241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6519…611bbacked Yes40c1,237$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae70…abfbbacked No3c1,159$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9840…2065backed No33c1,153$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.91333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No15c1,021$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.851330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No42c878.91$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.223846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No10c800.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.794914.3%7 W · 42 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes67c769.73$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.0115556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe5…58bcbacked No25c748.55$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.89742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No30c748.49$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.789038.9%35 W · 55 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed No2c734.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1110126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed No79c725.21$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.58051.3%41 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4e9…d89fbacked Yes68c713.69$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc301…6760backed No17c709.25$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No39c645.19$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8214031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51d…1578backed No12c555.58$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.073548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes11c550.27$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.259363.4%59 W · 34 L+12.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes27c535.78$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.1232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes31c517.17$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.894852.1%25 W · 23 L+10.4wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+59.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes23c495.04$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.159544.2%42 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed Yes43c487.53$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.892931%9 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1579…cc72backed No45c478.53$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9360%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes18c463.44$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.027723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932f…2cd8backed Yes20c460.41$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.41812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da8…aa05backed Yes10c457$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.511668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc473…dfdfbacked No10c454.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes56c413.93$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3210938.5%42 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x22b8…7f92backed No22c412.24$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes57c403.57$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.733234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes55c399.99$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1814325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes58c384.19$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.283520%7 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes69c367.83$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1818540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No33c332.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d65…da6ebacked No58c325.12$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.153873.7%28 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1566…86afbacked No5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc310…5bc6backed Yes15c298.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.71643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes40c293.46$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.646937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a43…d871backed Yes10c283$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+418.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26e4…13fbbacked No38c271.65$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes63c268.2$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.052133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed No14c266.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.343748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes17c245.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.944932.7%16 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5595…f5e9backed Yes44c240.51$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes9c234.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.211884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes28c233.61$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.043531.4%11 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+78.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc09c…682ebacked Yes73c230$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.52050%10 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd59c…cc11backed Yes42c221.67$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf0…5a02backed No7c220.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes32c206.65$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.253116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed No6c199.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951844.4%8 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+91.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcfd6…f45abacked Yes48c197.01$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35a4…7b85backed No33c195.54$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.25364.2%34 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2458…f8e7backed Yes63c192.6$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.261020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b22…ab06backed Yes76c191.75$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.121145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes15c183$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.552544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed No31c181.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2510551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed Yes60c165.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.892138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc18…d048backed No66c150.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ac4…301dbacked No8c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b3…7650backed No15c145.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No54c136.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.97329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f07…d756backed No48c128.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.321040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2b…8fa0backed No30c128.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd131…9422backed No10c123.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No10c115.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18da…91c4backed Yes16c114.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.18616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d00…4c8fbacked Yes43c114.1$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.042317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes58c109.61$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.632420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick17cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes14c105.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6623323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d6b…5cd9backed No66c105.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…6f84backed Yes43c104.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes41c104.03$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2621015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No56c101.2$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4519419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes65c96.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.773030%9 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77fe…835dbacked Yes18c96.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+132%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63df…0afabacked Yes12c91.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+307%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47be…924cbacked No16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No13c87.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9239034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes69c79.69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed0d…bc18backed No68c73.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No18c70.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7826413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabac…8f86backed Yes66c68.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd4…c680backed No68c58.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.642744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes21c53.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.474134.1%14 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+46.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5f6…bed7backed Yes44c53.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0583…5885backed No37c51.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes48c50.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.544438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea08…6191backed No57c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.