TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$404,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$375,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 495 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes2c55,649$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.21687.5%14 W · 2 L+6.9wins+0.43per pick44cpaid+154.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd540…8849backed Yes0c24,940$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb14…8155backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf055…fd13backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e24…f1bdbacked Yes75c8,405$6,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,337.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b9…4d3abacked Yes0c6,919$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.68250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+6,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c5,267$3,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.08933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c0…6f73backed Yes65c5,005$3,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,251.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes13c4,312$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.381127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf11d…ee9abacked Yes12c3,831$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No41c3,774$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.632584%21 W · 4 L+9.7wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0x9408…9cb2backed Yes5c3,509$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes8c2,801$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.62137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No51c2,739$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.81894.4%17 W · 1 L+7.5wins+0.42per pick53cpaid+107.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No44c2,399$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.83944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No45c2,392$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.15205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed No69c2,366$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e2…7283backed Yes50c2,326$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No21c2,286$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick30cpaid+87%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No31c2,255$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.022733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e4…dfc2backed No45c2,124$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.041566.7%10 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+683.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x328c…46c8backed Yes10c2,038$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes12c2,030$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2480%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No80c1,979$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.191050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c1,921$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a7…8819backed Yes10c1,907$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Yes54c1,844$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c1,673$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.54464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c1,658$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes7c1,657$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.89520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No40c1,446$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.294723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes23c1,443$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.611353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+152.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes8c1,418$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No41c1,407$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.87633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eed…1d52backed Yes4c1,396$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eac…140abacked Yes12c1,364$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b0…ca51backed Yes3c1,341$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes21c1,300$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+166.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7ed…4acdbacked Yes13c1,296$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes4c1,266$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50170%0 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5f…c035backed Yes8c1,210$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe661…7816backed No42c1,184$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d6…b5e5backed Yes67c1,177$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No70c1,155$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.471250%6 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Yes6c1,154$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes4c1,153$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.16911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…4976backed Yes56c1,130$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf4…63e7backed Yes9c1,100$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No70c1,069$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.761650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aaf…4956backed Yes9c1,055$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784d…0f44backed Yes17c1,042$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked Yes49c1,032$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+138.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No59c1,024$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.262142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…6043backed No35c1,005$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.411070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No68c1,002$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.23450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3190%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Yes56c999.97$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45fb…f1f6backed Yes6c998.85$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes59c988.28$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.11850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No50c985.65$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.132544%11 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8cee…bf14backed Yes11c970.02$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes11c947.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.54568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes3c917.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+75.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes23c865.41$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de0…3b9cbacked Yes58c862.57$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x301e…b192backed Yes50c849.99$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42930%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c800$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.92563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed Yes8c800$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ed…a4dcbacked Yes3c789.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbc…81e8backed Yes5c781.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160a…abaebacked Yes15c773.9$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes12c769.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked Yes7c759.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Yes39c747.95$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.581315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd86d…ecf8backed Yes55c713.13$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes58c710.45$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.171338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No38c700.38$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.36185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes3c683.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed No60c683.3$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c673$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12c…fae5backed No36c661.77$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.27540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a4…51a8backed Yes55c661.2$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed Yes5c640.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6071…e933backed Yes7c631.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…2914backed Yes65c630.26$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.71520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa60f…4140backed Yes48c607.26$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes42c604.73$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.43887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick49cpaid+123.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c22…3479backed Yes58c603.09$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes12c599.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d74…96ebbacked Yes32c586.85$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No48c544.27$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.635100%5 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+257.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes9c542.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.27166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c510$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes28c501.32$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.951030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No22c500$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.292123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7880…a793backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74b…31b1backed Yes60c499.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick61cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf525…559dbacked Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.