China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdfaa0eee43e1e883f71dd83167ed43c2bf54844dc8953cc4afb99f242e8aa4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebf4…b882backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 7,400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 5,303$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…8974backed Yes | 3c | 3,685$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,786$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 1c | 2,688$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,455$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…2483backed Yes | 2c | 2,390$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f091backed Yes | 2c | 2,386$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…e32fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,587$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 4c | 1,382$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…c8b9backed Yes | 2c | 1,323$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 4c | 1,151$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…0ecfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,092$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…e69bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,073$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…8378backed Yes | 1c | 1,073$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,037$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 979.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked Yes | 2c | 803.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 789.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 727$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 551.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…0874backed Yes | 5c | 469.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…68c7backed Yes | 2c | 456.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7893…c19fbacked Yes | 3c | 437.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 289.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…83dfbacked Yes | 8c | 189.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…770ebacked Yes | 11c | 93.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?this page
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?Yes won
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.