TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$250,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd49b…bdf9backed No12c22,101$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d37…a454backed No0c15,150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf055…fd13backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No4c7,139$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.18205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No38c3,620$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No25c3,478$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No21c2,497$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.851050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No76c2,429$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes62c2,387$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.051127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No13c2,037$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.681250%6 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No13c1,933$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.344723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes23c1,632$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.45137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No11c1,357$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5f…c035backed No8c1,319$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No6c1,275$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.55345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No23c1,200$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.99568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2c…fd24backed No9c1,132$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No12c1,114$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No9c1,108$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.761741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb65…031abacked No1c1,077$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31d…0586backed No9c1,010$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c947.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c909.89$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.49464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No45c907.55$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked No6c904.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb268…b871backed Yes59c753.96$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f39…7a21backed No1c750.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a7…8819backed No9c722.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No8c713$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No2c700.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.78911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f77…32cdbacked No9c662.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No36c662.52$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.112733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes40c653.93$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.132445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…242abacked Yes26c645.73$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.83922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ed…a4dcbacked No4c633.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c624.6$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.791050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No69c581.28$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.962544%11 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x173f…4a8fbacked No3c581.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked Yes27c564.95$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.95650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+138.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes79c548.38$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No12c541.61$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.173444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed No9c528.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e7…1318backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3de…111abacked No11c494.73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No13c481.08$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.17425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f3…3173backed No10c468.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No7c454.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No70c451.54$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.66837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No73c451.12$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.411850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No15c449.78$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No9c433.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.041376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+79.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes26c431.7$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.861414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No71c429.48$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.272347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…73b5backed Yes27c400.03$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes30c400$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked No9c399.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95cd…8efebacked Yes25c396.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.76922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c6f…8b32backed No6c385.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314a…80f6backed No6c385.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.950%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fbf…4953backed Yes11c362.28$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked No8c350$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da4…43c3backed Yes23c348$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+330.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8af…04e7backed Yes28c326.65$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+81.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eef…bd6bbacked No3c326.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c4…164bbacked Yes31c323.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06e…e82dbacked Yes27c310.8$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+84.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No53c310.08$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.372128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No32c308.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.061435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked No7c304.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes26c303.63$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.63580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick29cpaid+169.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a89…9783backed Yes61c301.29$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae6e…b4bebacked No15c300.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8345…5928backed No5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed No18c299.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x965b…1b6dbacked Yes27c295.05$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+275.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa78…2a88backed Yes34c292.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+285.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf525…559dbacked No10c286.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No15c286$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6a…9f05backed Yes21c279.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+133%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed No11c278$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Yes26c275.09$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid+26%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c9…0217backed No7c270.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3786…439abacked No11c270.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68aa…c64dbacked No5c268$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6071…e933backed No6c263.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x725b…27e8backed Yes22c232.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes21c230.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.361070%7 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick28cpaid+177.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c223$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…c845backed No11c220.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No13c219.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x670d…3f3fbacked Yes23c215.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc961…efa9backed Yes28c214.19$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes24c208.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.89540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+316.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea8…90c9backed Yes26c202.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes30c202.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd7…db07backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9efb…d78bbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62fc…2041backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.