China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7200d6862cf624a0d0f8de09f4a783f779cabc6bff76c75a3bf6b0f256530fb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6a…8683backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…b882backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,554$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…24a5backed Yes | 11c | 2,935$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 4c | 2,674$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 1,794$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…164bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,705$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5621…b2efbacked Yes | 10c | 1,580$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 4c | 1,547$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,544$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +9.7wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…f0dbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,108$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…8974backed Yes | 9c | 1,074$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,061$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…2483backed Yes | 9c | 1,013$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4377…cd61backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 938$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 794.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…5ca2backed Yes | 5c | 689.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 685.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 6c | 677.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…00a7backed Yes | 6c | 644.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 625.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 575.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 5c | 561.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed Yes | 14c | 554.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 458.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 9c | 429.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 7c | 415.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…9e86backed Yes | 7c | 411.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes | 7c | 373.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…bc5cbacked Yes | 7c | 322.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 7c | 315.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…7972backed Yes | 6c | 314.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…c255backed Yes | 7c | 303.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…b91bbacked Yes | 10c | 297.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48bb…2dc2backed Yes | 7c | 296.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 267.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fc…64d0backed Yes | 5c | 261.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 257.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7893…c19fbacked Yes | 7c | 245$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…fbfabacked Yes | 8c | 238.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 9c | 234.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 233.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb773…b0e8backed Yes | 7c | 233.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b6…2227backed Yes | 6c | 225.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…03d8backed Yes | 9c | 221.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a180backed Yes | 7c | 220.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…1a14backed Yes | 7c | 218.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1152backed Yes | 7c | 214.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…f932backed Yes | 12c | 213.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…9befbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 188.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…3a33backed Yes | 7c | 181.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…a084backed Yes | 8c | 177.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…2915backed Yes | 7c | 170.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…68c7backed Yes | 6c | 167.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…2bf7backed Yes | 8c | 154.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 10c | 151.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x949f…b038backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…b359backed Yes | 7c | 148.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…be0dbacked Yes | 9c | 131.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5f…0791backed Yes | 8c | 131$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…5e7cbacked Yes | 16c | 127.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…0178backed Yes | 25c | 120.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed Yes | 9c | 107.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5573…a055backed Yes | 12c | 94.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…37c9backed Yes | 41c | 89.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e2…90a1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 21c | 56.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 78c | 43.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…3936backed Yes | 27c | 40.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 52c | 34.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 26.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 73c | 26.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?this page
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?Yes won
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
- Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.